|
|
Voice to Congress |
This page presents 23 integrated requirements aimed at reversing the projected deterioration in federal debt, deficits, spending, revenue, and interest costs by 2036. Each requirement pairs a measurable target with its current metric, current value, recent trend, and the benefit to the American people if it is met. This is a stretch scenario built to be internally consistent -- every number below is arithmetically tied to every other one -- not a specific piece of legislation or a single prescribed policy path.
Central objective: debt held by the public declines from 100.6% of GDP in 2026 to 78.1% in 2036, instead of climbing to CBO's projected 120.2%. The decline is deliberately gradual at first and faster in later years, avoiding an abrupt near-term adjustment while still reaching the long-term target -- though that smoothing is itself backloaded, a real tradeoff disclosed in NDD-MET-001's own Feasibility, not hidden by the smoothing itself. Gross federal debt similarly declines from 123.6% to 88.6% of GDP. In nominal dollars, both gross debt and debt held by the public keep rising for several years, peak around 2033, and only then begin declining -- debt shrinks relative to the economy well before it shrinks in absolute terms.
Deficit and primary balance: the plan moves the federal budget from a $1.85 T deficit in 2026 to a -$0.53 T position in 2036 (negative denotes surplus, under this file's sign convention) -- from 5.81% of GDP to -1.14% of GDP -- and the primary balance from $0.81 T to -$1.98 T, or -4.23% of GDP. That primary surplus is close to the magnitude the U.S. actually achieved in 2000, but sustaining it for a decade rather than a few years is the more demanding part of this requirement, not the size of the surplus itself.
Revenue and spending strategy: receipts rise from 17.54% to 21.68% of GDP, extending the pace of the actual 1994-2000 revenue recovery. Outlays decline from 23.35% to 20.55% of GDP, and the spending-to-revenue ratio falls from 133.11% to 94.76% -- by 2036, the government collects slightly more than it spends. No specific tax legislation is identified here; this establishes the scale of revenue and spending adjustment the debt target requires, leaving how to reach it a separate, later question.
Mandatory and discretionary spending: mandatory spending is protected by a hard dollar floor at its 2026 level of $4,529 B -- held flat through 2029, then resuming growth to $5,893 B by 2036. Mandatory spending is never cut below its 2026 level, though the freeze years are still a real, difficult ask: benefits do not fully grow with inflation or new beneficiaries during that window. Discretionary spending absorbs most of the near-term adjustment instead, falling from 25.2% toward a temporary low before recovering to approximately its own CBO-baseline path by 2030 -- a substantially milder adjustment than an earlier, unsmoothed version of this same scenario required. This allocation (protect mandatory, let discretionary absorb the transition) was a deliberate choice made explicit in NDD-MET-017-USD's own Feasibility, not an automatic consequence of the math -- a different choice was possible, and would have asked more of defense, infrastructure, and research funding instead.
Interest costs: net interest still rises for most of the decade, from $1.04 T in 2026 to a peak near $1.47 T around 2035, before declining to $1.46 T by 2036 -- compared with a projected $2.14 T under the current baseline, a difference of roughly $680 billion in annual fiscal capacity by 2036. Interest never gets cheaper here; the debt simply gets smaller.
Citizen-level measures: debt held by the public per person rises from $93,350 to a peak near $105,461, then declines to $101,402 by 2036 -- against a baseline of $156,084 per person. Debt relative to annual receipts improves from 573.5% to 360.2% (debt held by the public) and from 704.6% to 408.8% (gross debt).
Read together, these 23 requirements describe one internally connected fiscal strategy, not 23 independent wishes: raise receipts, protect mandatory spending from dollar cuts, ask a temporary and now much milder adjustment of discretionary spending, move from deficits toward sustained surpluses, and let a smaller debt stock -- not cheaper borrowing -- bring interest costs down. Its central claim on the public's behalf is a federal government with less debt exposure, lower interest pressure, and more future budget capacity for healthcare, infrastructure, education, security, and the other priorities competing for the same dollars today.
Color Rule: Red text = bad current value, bad trend, missing critical data, or unfavorable gap. Green text = favorable value or improving trend. Amber text = context-dependent, incomplete, pending, or source-method review needed. Neutral/gray text = descriptive value that is not inherently good or bad.
NDD-REQ-001: The federal debt held by the public as percent of GDP shall decline from 100.6% in 2026 to 78.1% in 2036, smoothed as a gradual ease-in rather than moving immediately to the full average pace, thereby eliminating the abrupt first-year discontinuity while deliberately backloading much of the adjustment into the final five years (see Feasibility).
Current Metric: NDD-MET-001: Federal debt held by the public as percent of GDP
Current Value: 98.1% (2025)
Trend: +1.8 pp
Value to the People: Easing into the 1994-2001 debt-reduction pace instead of adopting it all at once brings debt down to 78.1% of GDP by 2036, instead of climbing to a projected 120.2% under the current baseline -- a swing that substantially reduces interest costs relative to CBO's baseline, leaving about $680 billion more annual fiscal capacity by 2036 (NDD-MET-012), even though interest's own share of the budget initially rises before flattening and declining.
NDD-REQ-002: The gross federal debt as percent of GDP shall decline from 123.6% in 2026 to 88.6% in 2036, at the same relative (smoothed, ease-in) pace as NDD-MET-001's glidepath.
Current Metric: NDD-MET-002: Gross federal debt as percent of GDP
Current Value: 121.5% (2025)
Trend: +1.2 pp
Value to the People: Following the same smoothed, gradually-accelerating pace as the debt-held-by-the-public glidepath brings gross federal debt down to 88.6% of GDP by 2036, instead of climbing to a projected 136.4% under the current baseline.
NDD-REQ-003: The total public debt outstanding shall rise from $39.43 trillion in 2026 to a peak near $42.73 trillion around 2033, then decline to $41.38 trillion by 2036, at the same relative (smoothed, ease-in) pace as NDD-MET-001's glidepath; because the pace of %GDP decline eventually outpaces GDP growth itself, the dollar figure turns downward in the final years -- not just relative to the economy, but in absolute terms.
Current Metric: NDD-MET-003: Total public debt outstanding
Current Value: $37.64 trillion (2025-09-30)
Trend: +$2.17 trillion (+6.10%) since 2024-09-30
Value to the People: Holding total public debt outstanding to a peak of about $42.7 trillion around 2033, then an actual decline in the final years, instead of the $63.69 trillion CBO's baseline projects for 2036, means debt not only grows far more slowly than the economy -- for the last several years, it stops growing in dollar terms altogether.
NDD-REQ-004: The debt held by the public (nominal dollars) shall rise from $32.10 trillion in 2026 to a peak near $37.43 trillion around 2033, then decline to $36.48 trillion by 2036, at the same relative (smoothed, ease-in) pace as NDD-MET-001's glidepath; because the pace of %GDP decline eventually outpaces GDP growth itself, the dollar figure turns downward in the final years.
Current Metric: NDD-MET-004: Debt held by the public (nominal dollars)
Current Value: $30.298 trillion (2025-09-30)
Trend: +$1.973 trillion (+6.96%) since 2024-09-30
Value to the People: Holding debt held by the public to a peak of about $37.4 trillion around 2033, then an actual decline in the final years, instead of the $56.15 trillion CBO's baseline projects for 2036, means debt not only grows far more slowly than the economy -- for the last several years, it stops growing in dollar terms altogether.
NDD-REQ-005: The annual federal deficit shall end lower than its 2026 level, declining from $1.85 T in 2026 to -$0.53 T in 2036, easing in smoothly rather than dropping sharply in a single year, with the receipts side of this path assuming revenue reaches 21.68% of GDP by 2036 (see NDD-MET-009) and the spending side assuming mandatory spending stays at or above its hard floor (see NDD-MET-017-USD).
Current Metric: NDD-MET-005: Annual federal deficit (nominal dollars)
Current Value: $1,774.7 billion (2025)
Trend: Deficit improved by $40.7 billion from FY2024 to FY2025
Value to the People: Following the smoothed deficit path that actually produces NDD-MET-001's debt glidepath brings the budget to -$0.53 T by 2036 -- instead of a projected $3.12 T deficit under the current baseline.
NDD-REQ-006: The federal deficit as percent of GDP shall decline from 5.81% in 2026 to a 1.14% surplus in 2036, easing in smoothly (matching NDD-MET-001's smoothed glidepath) and turning into an outright budget surplus around 2035 -- larger than the 1998 surplus (0.78% of GDP) but smaller than the surpluses recorded in 1999-2001 (1.33%, 2.34%, and 1.22% of GDP).
Current Metric: NDD-MET-006: Federal deficit as percent of GDP
Current Value: +5.85% (2025)
Trend: Deficit improved by 0.42 PP from 2024 to 2025
Value to the People: Following the smoothed deficit path that actually produces NDD-MET-001's debt glidepath brings the budget to a 1.14%-of-GDP surplus by 2036 -- not just a smaller deficit, but more revenue than total spending -- instead of a projected 6.67% deficit under the current baseline. The U.S. last ran total surpluses in each of fiscal years 1998-2001 (0.78%, 1.33%, 2.34%, and 1.22% of GDP); this target's 2036 surplus is larger than 1998's but smaller than 1999-2001's, including the 2000 peak.
NDD-REQ-007: The primary deficit shall improve from $0.81 trillion in 2026 to -$1.98 trillion (a primary surplus) in 2036 -- reaching primary surplus around 2028 and approaching the peak magnitude the United States achieved in 2000 (about 4.5% of GDP) by the final years, while requiring large primary surpluses to be sustained much longer than in 1998-2001.
Current Metric: NDD-MET-007: Primary deficit or surplus - nominal dollars
Current Value: Primary deficit $805.4 billion (2025)
Trend: -$145.7 billion vs 2024 (a smaller deficit -- an improvement)
Value to the People: Following the smoothed primary-balance path that actually produces NDD-MET-001's debt glidepath means non-interest spending falls below revenue starting around 2028, reaching a primary surplus of about $1.98 trillion (4.23% of GDP) by 2036 -- close to, but slightly below, the peak primary surplus the U.S. actually achieved in 2000 (about 4.5% of GDP, verified using CBO's fiscal-year historical data); the more demanding feature of this target is sustaining large primary surpluses for many consecutive years, not exceeding the peak size of any single year.
NDD-REQ-008: The primary deficit as percent of GDP shall improve from 2.55% in 2026 to -4.23% (a primary surplus) in 2036 -- reaching primary surplus around 2028 and approaching the peak magnitude the United States achieved in 2000 (about 4.5% of GDP) by the final years, while requiring large primary surpluses to be sustained much longer than in 1998-2001.
Current Metric: NDD-MET-008: Primary deficit or surplus as percent of GDP
Current Value: +2.65% (2025)
Trend: -0.63 PP vs 2024 (a smaller deficit -- an improvement)
Value to the People: Following the smoothed primary-balance path that actually produces NDD-MET-001's debt glidepath means non-interest spending falls below revenue starting around 2028, reaching a primary surplus of about 4.2% of GDP by 2036 -- close to, but slightly below, the peak primary surplus the U.S. actually achieved in 2000 (about 4.5% of GDP, verified using CBO's fiscal-year historical data); the more demanding feature of this target is sustaining large primary surpluses for many consecutive years, not exceeding the peak size of any single year.
NDD-REQ-009: Federal receipts as percent of GDP shall end higher than its 2026 starting point, rising from 17.54% in 2026 to 21.68% in 2036, at the pace the U.S. actually achieved from 1994 to 2000.
Current Metric: NDD-MET-009: Federal receipts as percent of GDP
Current Value: 17.0% (2025)
Trend: +0.23 PP
Value to the People: Growing receipts at the same pace the economy actually achieved from 1994-2000 brings receipts to 21.68% of GDP by 2036, supplying most of what NDD-MET-001's debt glidepath requires alongside spending discipline.
NDD-REQ-010: Federal net outlays as percent of GDP shall decline steadily from 23.35% in 2026 to 20.55% in 2036 -- the outlay level consistent with NDD-MET-009's receipts path and NDD-MET-001's smoothed debt glidepath, after accounting for lower-than-baseline interest costs on a shrinking debt.
Current Metric: NDD-MET-010: Federal net outlays as percent of GDP
Current Value: 22.8% (2025)
Trend: -0.20 PP
Value to the People: Outlays declining steadily from 23.35% to 20.55% of GDP over the decade -- a smooth, gradual decline rather than a sharp near-term dip and recovery -- reflects both a much milder discretionary-spending adjustment (NDD-MET-018/019) and interest costs that remain below baseline and eventually flatten and decline (NDD-MET-012) as debt shrinks.
NDD-REQ-011: The federal spending-to-revenue ratio shall decline from 133.11% in 2026 to 94.76% in 2036 -- the ratio implied by NDD-MET-010's outlay path divided by NDD-MET-009's receipts path, both already tied to NDD-MET-001's smoothed debt glidepath. By 2036 the government collects slightly more than it spends.
Current Metric: NDD-MET-011: Federal spending-to-revenue ratio
Current Value: 133.9% (2025)
Trend: -3.01 PP vs 2024
Value to the People: Following the outlay and receipts paths that produce NDD-MET-001's debt glidepath brings spending below revenue by 2036 -- the government would collect about 5 cents more than it spends for every dollar, down from spending $1.34 for every dollar collected today.
NDD-REQ-012: Net interest outlays shall grow from $1.04 T in 2026 to a peak near $1.47 T around 2035, then decline to $1.46 T by 2036 -- interest costs stop growing altogether in the final year, since debt (NDD-MET-001) is by then shrinking fast enough to outweigh CBO's exact assumed interest rates.
Current Metric: NDD-MET-012: Net interest outlays - nominal dollars
Current Value: $970 billion (2025)
Trend: $90.2 billion (+10.2%)
Value to the People: Interest costs grow for most of this path -- there's no way around paying interest on existing debt while debt is still historically high -- but by around 2035 the shrinking debt stock outweighs even CBO's own assumption of rising rates. Reaching $1.46 T by 2036 instead of a projected $2.14 T leaves nearly $680 billion a year more for other priorities.
NDD-REQ-013: Federal interest outlays as percent of GDP shall rise to a peak near 3.53% around 2031-2032, then decline to 3.13% by 2036 -- net lower than the 3.26% starting point, once debt (NDD-MET-001) shrinks enough to outweigh CBO's exact assumed interest rates (imported 2026-07-11).
Current Metric: NDD-MET-013: Federal interest outlays as percent of GDP
Current Value: 3.15% (2025)
Trend: +0.15 PP
Value to the People: Because a smaller debt stock eventually outweighs CBO's own assumption of rising interest rates, interest costs as a share of the economy peak near 3.53% around 2031-2032 and then decline, ending at 3.13% of GDP in 2036 -- net lower than today -- instead of climbing to a projected 4.59%.
NDD-REQ-014: Net interest outlays as percent of federal receipts shall decline from 18.6% in 2026 to 14.4% in 2036 -- the ratio implied by NDD-MET-012's exact-rate interest-cost path divided by NDD-MET-009's receipts path.
Current Metric: NDD-MET-014: Net interest outlays as percent of federal receipts
Current Value: 18.5% (2025)
Trend: +0.64 PP
Value to the People: With interest costs peaking and then flattening (NDD-MET-012) while receipts keep growing (NDD-MET-009), interest's share of every tax dollar collected falls from about 18.6 cents to about 14.4 cents by 2036, instead of rising to a projected 25.8 cents.
NDD-REQ-015: Net interest as percent of federal outlays shall peak near 16.7% around 2032 and decline to 15.2% by 2036 -- the ratio implied by NDD-MET-012's exact-rate interest-cost path divided by NDD-MET-010's outlay path.
Current Metric: NDD-MET-015: Net interest share of federal outlays
Current Value: 13.8% (2025)
Trend: +0.77 PP vs 2024
Value to the People: Interest's share of the budget rises for several years (spending has to fall further before the smaller debt stock catches up), peaking near 16.7% around 2032, then declines to 15.2% by 2036 -- above where it started but well below the baseline's trajectory -- instead of climbing to a projected 18.8%.
NDD-REQ-016: Mandatory spending shall never fall below its 2026 dollar level in any year through 2036 (see NDD-MET-017-USD for the dollar path) -- a hard floor, not a target for this row's percentage itself. As a share of federal outlays, that floor means the percentage rises to about 62.0% by 2027 (as discretionary spending, not mandatory, absorbs the near-term budget tightening) before settling near 61.4% by 2036.
Current Metric: NDD-MET-016: Mandatory spending as percent of federal outlays
Current Value: 59.5% (2025)
Trend: -0.7 PP vs 2024; -10.4 PP vs 2020
Value to the People: The protection in this scenario is a hard dollar floor: mandatory spending -- Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and other entitlement programs -- never falls below its 2026 level in any year (see NDD-MET-017-USD), even as the rest of the budget tightens. With the smoothed glidepath, this row's percentage moves only modestly (62.0% to 61.4%), since discretionary spending (NDD-MET-018/019) absorbs a much milder adjustment than under the original unsmoothed version.
NDD-REQ-017: Mandatory spending shall never fall below $4,529 B (its 2026 dollar level, see NDD-MET-017-USD) in any year through 2036. As percent of GDP, that floor means this metric dips to about 12.5% around 2030, then ends lower than its 2026 starting value of 14.2%, at 12.6% by 2036 -- staying below today's level throughout.
Current Metric: NDD-MET-017: Mandatory spending as percent of GDP
Current Value: 13.7% (2025)
Trend: -0.3 PP vs 2024; -7.7 PP vs 2020
Value to the People: Mandatory spending -- Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and other entitlement programs -- is held to a hard dollar floor that never declines (see NDD-MET-017-USD for the dollar path). A multi-year freeze is still a real, difficult ask, but it is categorically different from a cut below current spending.
NDD-REQ-018: Discretionary spending absorbs the transition needed to protect NDD-MET-017-USD's mandatory-spending floor: it falls from $1.88 trillion (2026) to about $1.68 trillion (2027) -- a real but now much milder cut of roughly 10%, versus the roughly 46% cut the original unsmoothed version required -- before recovering to approximately its own CBO-baseline dollar level by 2030. Because total target outlays are lower than CBO's baseline outlays, discretionary spending remains a larger share of target outlays than its own baseline share from 2030 onward, even at the same dollar level.
Current Metric: NDD-MET-018: Discretionary spending as percent of federal outlays
Current Value: 26.7% (2025)
Trend: -0.1 PP vs 2024; +1.9 PP vs 2020
Value to the People: Protecting mandatory spending's dollar floor (NDD-MET-016/017) requires discretionary spending -- defense, infrastructure, research, and other essential public functions -- to absorb a real but now mild cut: down to about $1.68 trillion in 2027 (about 10% below 2026, versus 46% under the original unsmoothed glidepath), recovering to its own CBO-baseline level by 2030. Smoothing NDD-MET-001's pace made this the biggest single improvement in this scenario's near-term cost.
NDD-REQ-019: Discretionary spending as percent of GDP absorbs the transition needed to protect NDD-MET-017-USD's mandatory-spending floor: it falls from 5.89% (2026) to about 5.1% (2027) -- a real but now mild reduction, versus the roughly 3.0% low point the original unsmoothed version required -- before recovering to its own CBO-baseline level by 2030 and tracking it through 2036 (4.8%).
Current Metric: NDD-MET-019: Discretionary spending as percent of GDP
Current Value: 6.2% (2025)
Trend: -0.1 PP vs 2024; -1.5 PP vs 2020
Value to the People: Protecting mandatory spending's dollar floor (NDD-MET-016/017) requires discretionary spending -- national defense, public safety, infrastructure, research, and other essential public functions -- to absorb a real but now mild reduction, to about 5.1% of GDP in 2027, recovering to CBO's own baseline level by 2030. Smoothing NDD-MET-001's pace made this the biggest single improvement in this scenario's near-term cost.
NDD-REQ-020: Annual growth in federal interest outlays shall decline from +7.12% in 2026 to -0.32% in 2036 -- interest costs stop growing and start shrinking in the final year -- the growth-rate path implied by NDD-MET-012's exact-rate interest-cost trajectory.
Assoc V2 Req:
NDD-MET-020; NDD-PER-006
Current Metric: NDD-MET-020: Annual percent change in federal interest outlays
Current Value: +10.25% (2025)
Trend: -23.42 PP vs 2024
Value to the People: Following NDD-MET-012's exact-rate interest-cost path, growth in interest costs slows unevenly but persistently -- dipping and rising through the high-single digits in the late 2020s and early 2030s, then falling sharply -- until it turns negative in 2036, meaning interest costs actually shrink in dollar terms for the first time in this glidepath.
NDD-REQ-021: Federal debt held by the public per person shall rise from $93,350 in 2026 to a peak near $105,461 around 2032, then ease down to about $101,402 by 2036, at the same relative (smoothed, ease-in) pace as NDD-MET-001's glidepath -- using a single population concept (FRED POPTHM) consistently across actual, baseline, and target figures.
Current Metric: NDD-MET-021: Federal debt held by the public per person
Current Value: $88,520 per person (2025)
Trend: +$5,377 vs 2024
Value to the People: Following the same relative pace as the debt-held-by-the-public glidepath keeps debt per person from climbing much past the 2026 starting value of $93,350, instead of reaching a projected $156,084 per person by 2036 under the current baseline.
NDD-REQ-022: Federal debt held by the public as percent of federal receipts shall decline from 573.5% in 2026 to 360.2% in 2036, computed consistently as NDD-MET-001's target debt divided by NDD-MET-009's target receipts for each year (not CBO's baseline receipts), so this row stays integrated with the rest of the scenario.
Current Metric: NDD-MET-022: Federal debt held by the public as percent of federal receipts
Current Value: 578.6% (2025)
Trend: +2.9 PP
Value to the People: Following NDD-MET-001's smoothed debt glidepath and NDD-MET-009's receipts path together (debt divided by receipts, both already part of this scenario) brings debt down to 360.2% of annual receipts by 2036, instead of climbing to a projected 676.5% under the current baseline.
NDD-REQ-023: Gross federal debt as percent of federal receipts shall decline from 704.6% in 2026 to 408.8% in 2036, computed consistently as NDD-MET-002's target gross debt divided by NDD-MET-009's target receipts for each year (not CBO's baseline receipts), so this row stays integrated with the rest of the scenario.
Current Metric: NDD-MET-023: Gross federal debt as percent of federal receipts
Current Value: 713.8% (2025)
Trend: -2.3 PP vs 2024
Value to the People: Following NDD-MET-002's smoothed gross-debt glidepath and NDD-MET-009's receipts path together (debt divided by receipts, both already part of this scenario) brings gross debt down to 408.8% of annual receipts by 2036, instead of climbing to a projected 767.3% under the current baseline.