Voice to Congress

National Debt and Deficit Expansion Cache Review V2

This page displays the second candidate metric cache V2 V2 for semi-automated expansion metrics. It is a review aid only. It does not activate issue scoring, member scoring, public grades, rollups, or leaderboards. V2 derives NDD-MET-008 from FRED annual percent-of-GDP series and keeps formula review required.

Review gate: These rows are not yet approved for the main candidate metrics display. Review the formula, source, sign convention, trend window, and limitations before approving any merge into the public candidate metrics home page.

Abbreviation: PP = percentage points. Unfavorable trend/change values may be shown in red by the generated fragment.

Source files: Expansion Summary TXT: _issue_support\metrics\review\ndd_candidate_metrics_expansion_cache_summary_v2.txt
Expansion Report CSV: _issue_support\metrics\review\ndd_candidate_metrics_expansion_cache_report_v2.csv
Expansion JSON: 40 - Metrics\App_Data\ndd_candidate_metrics_expansion_current.json

Expansion Cache Summary

National Debt and Deficit Candidate Metric Expansion Cache Summary V2
=====================================================================
Script version: NDD_SECOND_CANDIDATE_CACHE_BUILDER_V2
Generated: 2026-05-20T13:12:23
Issue folder: G:\voicetocongress.com\40 - Top Issues\060 - National Debt and Deficit
Expansion metrics attempted: 5
Expansion cache OK: 4
Review-only not cached: 1
Cache errors: 0
Human/formula review required: 5

Important release rule:
  This expansion cache does not activate scoring, issue grades, member grades, leaderboards, or public rollups.
  Do not merge these expansion metrics into public candidate display until formula/source review is approved.

Expansion metrics:
  NDD-MET-005: OK_REVIEW_REQUIRED - Annual federal deficit or surplus - nominal dollars - deficit -$1,774.7 billion (2025)
    Review: SOURCE_SUBSTITUTION_REVIEW_REQUIRED | Human review required: YES
  NDD-MET-007: OK_FORMULA_REVIEW_REQUIRED - Primary deficit or surplus - nominal dollars - Primary deficit -$804.6 billion (2025)
    Review: FORMULA_AUDIT_REQUIRED | Human review required: YES
  NDD-MET-008: OK_FORMULA_REVIEW_REQUIRED - Primary deficit or surplus as percent of GDP - -2.62% (2025)
    Review: FORMULA_AUDIT_REQUIRED | Human review required: YES
  NDD-MET-020: OK_FORMULA_REVIEW_REQUIRED - Debt service growth rate - +10.2% (2025)
    Review: FORMULA_AUDIT_REQUIRED | Human review required: YES
  NDD-MET-027: REVIEW_ONLY_NOT_CACHED - Emergency and supplemental spending fiscal impact - Pending official bill/evidence workflow (Congress/year and fiscal year)
    Review: EVIDENCE_WORKFLOW_REQUIRED | Human review required: YES

Files written:
  G:\voicetocongress.com\40 - Top Issues\060 - National Debt and Deficit\_issue_support\metrics\review\ndd_candidate_metrics_expansion_cache_report_v2.csv
  G:\voicetocongress.com\40 - Top Issues\060 - National Debt and Deficit\_issue_support\metrics\review\ndd_candidate_metrics_expansion_cache_summary_v2.txt
  G:\voicetocongress.com\40 - Top Issues\060 - National Debt and Deficit\40 - Metrics\App_Data\ndd_candidate_metrics_expansion_current.json
  G:\voicetocongress.com\40 - Top Issues\060 - National Debt and Deficit\40 - Metrics\App_Data\ndd_candidate_metrics_expansion_current_v2.json
  G:\voicetocongress.com\40 - Top Issues\060 - National Debt and Deficit\40 - Metrics\App_Data\ndd_candidate_metrics_expansion_history.jsonl
  G:\voicetocongress.com\40 - Top Issues\060 - National Debt and Deficit\40 - Metrics\App_Data\ndd_candidate_metrics_expansion_history_v2.jsonl
  G:\voicetocongress.com\40 - Top Issues\060 - National Debt and Deficit\40 - Metrics\App_Data\ndd_candidate_metrics_expansion_table_fragment.html
  G:\voicetocongress.com\40 - Top Issues\060 - National Debt and Deficit\40 - Metrics\App_Data\ndd_candidate_metrics_expansion_table_fragment_v2.html

Expansion Candidate Metrics

Generated: 2026-05-20T13:12:23

Note: PP = percentage points. These are expansion-review metrics only. Do not merge into the public candidate metrics display until reviewed.

Metric	Name	Latest Value	Observation Period	Trend / Change	Trend Window	Direction Review	Formula / Source Review	Limitation Note	Status
NDD-MET-005	Annual federal deficit or surplus - nominal dollars	deficit -$1,774.7 billion	2025	$40.7 billion	2025 vs 2024	Improving direction - deficit smaller or surplus larger	SOURCE_SUBSTITUTION_REVIEW_REQUIRED	Monthly FYTD values must be compared to like-to-like months; final fiscal year is more stable.	EXPANSION_CACHE_REVIEW_ONLY_NOT_SCORED
NDD-MET-007	Primary deficit or surplus - nominal dollars	Primary deficit -$804.6 billion	2025	$130.9 billion	2025 vs 2024	Improving direction - primary deficit smaller or primary surplus larger	FORMULA_AUDIT_REQUIRED	Requires careful sign convention review; source series may use different units.	EXPANSION_CACHE_REVIEW_ONLY_NOT_SCORED
NDD-MET-008	Primary deficit or surplus as percent of GDP	-2.62%	2025	+0.58 PP	2025 vs 2024	Improving direction - primary deficit smaller or primary surplus larger	FORMULA_AUDIT_REQUIRED	Derived metric must not be promoted without formula QA and source cross-check.	EXPANSION_CACHE_REVIEW_ONLY_NOT_SCORED
NDD-MET-020	Debt service growth rate	+10.2%	2025	+10.2%	2025 vs 2024	Worsening direction - interest outlays grew year over year	FORMULA_AUDIT_REQUIRED	Interest growth can be driven by market rates and refinancing schedule, not only new legislation.	EXPANSION_CACHE_REVIEW_ONLY_NOT_SCORED
NDD-MET-027	Emergency and supplemental spending fiscal impact	Pending official bill/evidence workflow	Congress/year and fiscal year		Not applicable yet	Human source/evidence review required	EVIDENCE_WORKFLOW_REQUIRED	Emergency spending can be necessary; policy assessment needs context and evidence.	EXPANSION_CACHE_REVIEW_ONLY_NOT_SCORED

Release rule: Expansion cache only. No issue score, member score, grade, active rollup, or leaderboard is enabled by this file.

Review Guidance

Metric Group	What to Check	Candidate Decision
NDD-MET-005 Annual federal deficit or surplus	Confirm whether annual completed fiscal-year FRED/OMB values are acceptable now, and whether monthly Treasury MTS FYTD values should be added later.	Formula/source review required
NDD-MET-007 and NDD-MET-008 Primary balance	Confirm sign convention: primary balance = total surplus/deficit plus net interest outlays. A negative value remains a primary deficit.	Formula audit required
NDD-MET-020 Debt service growth rate	Confirm YoY and five-year growth logic from annual net interest outlays.	Formula audit required
NDD-MET-027 Emergency/supplemental spending impact	Keep as evidence-workflow only until official bill classification and CBO/OMB/Treasury evidence exists.	Do not automate yet