NDD-REQ-001
The federal debt held by the public as percent of GDP shall decline from 100.6% in 2026 to 78.1% in 2036, smoothed as a gradual ease-in rather than moving immediately to the full average pace, thereby eliminating the abrupt first-year discontinuity while deliberately backloading much of the adjustment into the final five years (see Feasibility).
Feasibility
Historical U.S. precedent: debt held by the public fell from 47.1% of GDP in 1994 to 31.4% in 2001 (FRED FYPUGDA188S), a decline of 2.25 percentage points per year. This glidepath adopts that verified pace, smoothed as a quadratic ease-in so no single year carries the abrupt jump an earlier, unsmoothed version had -- though the smoothing is itself backloaded: about 25% of the total decline occurs in 2027-2031, about 75% in 2032-2036.
Benefits
If Met: Easing into the 1994-2001 debt-reduction pace instead of adopting it all at once brings debt down to 78.1% of GDP by 2036, instead of climbing to a projected 120.2% under the current baseline -- a swing that substantially reduces interest costs relative to CBO's baseline, leaving about $680 billion more annual fiscal capacity by 2036 (NDD-MET-012), even though interest's own share of the budget initially rises before flattening and declining.
If Not Met: Staying on the current path pushes debt to 120.2% of GDP by 2036, well past the post-WWII record of 106% (1946).
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NDD-MET-001: Federal debt held by the public as percent of GDP
Current Value: 98.1% (2025)
Trend: +1.8 pp (Worsening)
Metric Evidence:
| Type | Period | Target | Value | Source |
|---|
| Actual | 2001 | --- | 31.4% | FRED |
| Actual | 2006 | --- | 35.0% | FRED |
| Actual | 2011 | --- | 64.9% | FRED |
| Actual | 2016 | --- | 75.3% | FRED |
| Actual | 2021 | --- | 93.9% | FRED |
| Actual | 2024 | --- | 96.2% | FRED |
| Actual | 2025 | --- | 98.1% | FRED |
| Projection | 2026 | 100.6% | 100.6% | CBO |
| Projection | 2027 | 100.4% | 102.1% | CBO |
| Projection | 2028 | 99.7% | 104.1% | CBO |
| Projection | 2029 | 98.6% | 105.8% | CBO |
| Projection | 2030 | 97.0% | 107.7% | CBO |
| Projection | 2031 | 95.0% | 109.6% | CBO |
| Projection | 2032 | 92.5% | 111.5% | CBO |
| Projection | 2033 | 89.6% | 114.0% | CBO |
| Projection | 2034 | 86.2% | 116.2% | CBO |
| Projection | 2035 | 82.4% | 118.0% | CBO |
| Projection | 2036 | 78.1% | 120.2% | CBO |
Source Location: FRED annual series FYPUGDA188S for actuals. CBO 2026-2036 budget projections, publication 62105, for projections.
Status: Evidence sources and values verified
Interpretation: A higher value is generally more concerning when it reflects debt, deficits, outlays, or interest burden.
Formula: Source series direct
Notes: Debt held by the public measures what the U.S. government owes to outside lenders.
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NDD-REQ-002
The gross federal debt as percent of GDP shall decline from 123.6% in 2026 to 88.6% in 2036, at the same relative (smoothed, ease-in) pace as NDD-MET-001's glidepath.
Feasibility
This metric moves somewhat differently from NDD-MET-001 (debt held by the public) because of how intragovernmental debt behaves. Intragovernmental debt -- mainly Social Security, Medicare, and federal retirement trust fund holdings -- currently makes up about 19-20% of gross federal debt. CBO projects that share will shrink as the Social Security trust funds draw down: CBO's own February 2026 testimony projects the OASI trust fund alone exhausted in fiscal year 2032, and the combined OASDI trust funds (OASI plus Disability Insurance) exhausted in 2033 (corrected 2026-07-11 after external review; CBO). Each dollar of trust fund securities redeemed converts one-for-one into new debt held by the public, so gross debt and debt held by the public are on a path to substantially converge over the next decade under current law. That said, this convergence is not immutable: Congress could change payroll tax rates, benefit formulas, transfers, or trust-fund rules at any time, which would alter the pace (corrected 2026-07-11 -- an earlier version of this text overstated this as something no legislation could touch). The broader levers that would actually bend this metric's trajectory -- sustained primary surpluses, faster growth relative to interest rates, and political consensus to sustain either -- are the same ones covered in NDD-MET-001's Feasibility, and the same historical and international precedents and caveats apply here. This row's target scales NDD-MET-001's glidepath by the same ratio each year rather than re-deriving a separate pace, since both series describe closely related debt trajectories.
Benefits
If Met: Following the same smoothed, gradually-accelerating pace as the debt-held-by-the-public glidepath brings gross federal debt down to 88.6% of GDP by 2036, instead of climbing to a projected 136.4% under the current baseline.
If Not Met: Left unchecked, gross federal debt (debt held by the public plus what the government owes its own trust funds) reaches 136.4% of GDP by 2036, roughly 48 percentage points above this glidepath's endpoint.
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NDD-MET-002: Gross federal debt as percent of GDP
Current Value: 121.5% (2025)
Trend: +1.2 pp (Worsening)
Metric Evidence:
| Type | Period | Target | Value | Source |
|---|
| Actual | 2001 | --- | 54.5% | FRED |
| Actual | 2006 | --- | 61.2% | FRED |
| Actual | 2011 | --- | 94.6% | FRED |
| Actual | 2016 | --- | 103.9% | FRED |
| Actual | 2021 | --- | 119.6% | FRED |
| Actual | 2024 | --- | 120.2% | FRED |
| Actual | 2025 | --- | 121.5% | FRED |
| Projection | 2026 | 123.6% | 123.6% | CBO |
| Projection | 2027 | 121.81% | 123.9% | CBO |
| Projection | 2028 | 119.62% | 124.9% | CBO |
| Projection | 2029 | 116.93% | 125.5% | CBO |
| Projection | 2030 | 113.66% | 126.2% | CBO |
| Projection | 2031 | 109.88% | 126.8% | CBO |
| Projection | 2032 | 106.02% | 127.8% | CBO |
| Projection | 2033 | 102.23% | 130.1% | CBO |
| Projection | 2034 | 98.07% | 132.2% | CBO |
| Projection | 2035 | 93.68% | 134.2% | CBO |
| Projection | 2036 | 88.6% | 136.4% | CBO |
Source Location: Actuals: FRED GFDGDPA188S (Gross Federal Debt as Percent of GDP, annual, not seasonally adjusted). Projections: CBO February 2026 Budget and Economic Outlook, Table 1-3 (Gross federal debt, billions of dollars) divided by Table 1-1 GDP addendum (billions of dollars).
Status: Evidence sources and values verified
Interpretation: A higher value is generally more concerning when it reflects debt, deficits, outlays, or interest burden.
Formula: Gross federal debt (debt held by the public + debt held by government accounts) / GDP.
Notes: Distinct from NDD-MET-001, which measures debt held by the public only. Gross federal debt additionally includes debt held by government accounts such as the Social Security trust funds, so it is a larger figure than NDD-MET-001's.
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NDD-REQ-003
The total public debt outstanding shall rise from $39.43 trillion in 2026 to a peak near $42.73 trillion around 2033, then decline to $41.38 trillion by 2036, at the same relative (smoothed, ease-in) pace as NDD-MET-001's glidepath; because the pace of %GDP decline eventually outpaces GDP growth itself, the dollar figure turns downward in the final years -- not just relative to the economy, but in absolute terms.
Feasibility
Total public debt outstanding (debt held by the public plus intragovernmental holdings, per this row's own Formula field) is essentially the same quantity as NDD-MET-002's gross federal debt, so this row's Feasibility content is the same: see NDD-MET-001 for the historical/international precedent behind the pace, and NDD-MET-002 for why gross-style debt measures move somewhat differently than debt held by the public alone (intragovernmental debt, mainly Social Security and Medicare trust funds, is on its own path toward roughly 2033 exhaustion, which mechanically shrinks the gap between the two debt measures regardless of budget policy). This row's target scales NDD-MET-001's glidepath by the same ratio each year rather than re-deriving a separate pace.
Benefits
If Met: Holding total public debt outstanding to a peak of about $42.7 trillion around 2033, then an actual decline in the final years, instead of the $63.69 trillion CBO's baseline projects for 2036, means debt not only grows far more slowly than the economy -- for the last several years, it stops growing in dollar terms altogether.
If Not Met: Left unchecked, total public debt outstanding grows to $63.69 trillion by 2036 -- about $22 trillion more than this glidepath's endpoint, and still climbing, unlike this glidepath's declining final years.
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NDD-MET-003: Total public debt outstanding
Current Value: $37.64 trillion (2025-09-30)
Trend: +$2.17 trillion (+6.10%) since 2024-09-30 (Worsening)
Metric Evidence:
| Type | Period | Target | Value | Source |
|---|
| Actual | 2001-09-30 | --- | $5.81 T | FRED |
| Actual | 2006-09-30 | --- | $8.51 T | FRED |
| Actual | 2011-09-30 | --- | $14.79 T | FRED |
| Actual | 2016-09-30 | --- | $19.57 T | FRED |
| Actual | 2021-09-30 | --- | $28.43 T | FRED |
| Actual | 2024-09-30 | --- | $35.46 T | FRED |
| Actual | 2025-09-30 | --- | $37.64 T | FRED |
| Projection | 2026 | $39.43 T | $39.43 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2027 | $40.58 T | $41.28 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2028 | $41.47 T | $43.30 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2029 | $42.10 T | $45.19 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2030 | $42.50 T | $47.19 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2031 | $42.65 T | $49.22 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2032 | $42.71 T | $51.48 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2033 | $42.73 T | $54.38 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2034 | $42.55 T | $57.36 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2035 | $42.16 T | $60.39 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2036 | $41.38 T | $63.69 T | CBO |
Source Location: Actuals: FRED Federal Debt: Total Public Debt, sourced from U.S. Treasury Fiscal Service, quarterly/end-of-period observations used for the fiscal-year-end actual evidence rows where applicable. Projections: CBO February 2026 Budget and Economic Outlook, Table 1-3, gross federal debt projection proxy. Trial targets are user-created/research targets.
Status: Evidence sources and values verified
Interpretation: A higher total public debt outstanding value is generally more concerning when it reflects accumulated deficits and rising interest burden. CBO projection rows are a gross federal debt proxy and should be reviewed before controlled promotion.
Formula: Total Public Debt Outstanding = Debt Held by the Public + Intragovernmental Holdings. Projection proxy uses CBO Gross Federal Debt where exact Treasury TPDO projections are not available.
Notes: Keep source facts, CBO projection proxy values, and trial target values distinct. Metric evidence values are displayed to two decimal places in trillions. Projection-row trial target is $39.43 trillion pending feasibility research and reviewer judgment. Consequence/risk: moving too fast could harm essential services or growth; doing nothing allows the debt stock and interest burden to keep rising. Feasibility research to include: policy changes, historical U.S. precedent, international comparisons, effects on most Americans, intermediate targets, and what Congress should do first.
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NDD-REQ-004
The debt held by the public (nominal dollars) shall rise from $32.10 trillion in 2026 to a peak near $37.43 trillion around 2033, then decline to $36.48 trillion by 2036, at the same relative (smoothed, ease-in) pace as NDD-MET-001's glidepath; because the pace of %GDP decline eventually outpaces GDP growth itself, the dollar figure turns downward in the final years.
Feasibility
This row is the dollar-denominated version of NDD-MET-001 (debt held by the public as % of GDP) -- the same underlying debt, different units. See NDD-MET-001's Feasibility for the historical/international precedent (the 1994-2001 U.S. episode) behind the pace and its caveats. This row's target is not independently derived; it applies NDD-MET-001's %GDP glidepath to actual CBO GDP projections to get the corresponding dollar figures.
Benefits
If Met: Holding debt held by the public to a peak of about $37.4 trillion around 2033, then an actual decline in the final years, instead of the $56.15 trillion CBO's baseline projects for 2036, means debt not only grows far more slowly than the economy -- for the last several years, it stops growing in dollar terms altogether.
If Not Met: Left unchecked, debt held by the public nearly doubles to $56.15 trillion by 2036 -- about $20 trillion more than this glidepath's endpoint.
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NDD-MET-004: Debt held by the public (nominal dollars)
Current Value: $30.298 trillion (2025-09-30)
Trend: +$1.973 trillion (+6.96%) since 2024-09-30 (Worsening)
Metric Evidence:
| Type | Period | Target | Value | Source |
|---|
| Actual | 2001-09-30 | --- | $3.34 T | FRED |
| Actual | 2006-09-30 | --- | $4.84 T | FRED |
| Actual | 2011-09-30 | --- | $10.13 T | FRED |
| Actual | 2016-09-30 | --- | $14.18 T | FRED |
| Actual | 2021-09-30 | --- | $22.31 T | FRED |
| Actual | 2024-09-30 | --- | $28.33 T | FRED |
| Actual | 2025-09-30 | --- | $30.30 T | FRED |
| Projection | 2026 | $32.10 T | $32.10 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2027 | $33.43 T | $34.00 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2028 | $34.56 T | $36.09 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2029 | $35.50 T | $38.10 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2030 | $36.28 T | $40.28 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2031 | $36.85 T | $42.53 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2032 | $37.27 T | $44.92 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2033 | $37.43 T | $47.64 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2034 | $37.38 T | $50.39 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2035 | $37.07 T | $53.10 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2036 | $36.48 T | $56.15 T | CBO |
Source Location: Treasury Debt to the Penny -> Date Range: All -> CSV -> column: Debt Held by the Public. Projection source: CBO Table 1-3 / baseline projections / Debt held by the public at the end of the year.
Status: Evidence sources and values verified
Interpretation: This shows the amount the federal government owes to outside lenders. Higher debt held by the public is generally more concerning when it reflects growing debt burden and interest exposure.
Formula: Source series direct.
Notes: Debt held by the public measures what the U.S. government owes to outside lenders. Gross federal debt includes debt held by the public plus intragovernmental debt owed to federal trust funds.
Target / Timeframe: Target: TBS. Candidate Target: improve trend toward sustainability.
Timeframe: TBS; 2036 for CBO 10-year metrics when applicable.
Benefits / Consequences: Benefits If Met: improves fiscal flexibility, reduces pressure on future taxpayers, and protects public priorities.
Consequences If Not Met: rising debt can increase interest costs, reduce fiscal choices, and weaken resilience during shocks.
Top Countries / Inspiration: TBS. Identify peer countries or historical periods where improvement occurred; use for inspiration, not proof of direct transferability.
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NDD-REQ-005
The annual federal deficit shall end lower than its 2026 level, declining from $1.85 T in 2026 to -$0.53 T in 2036, easing in smoothly rather than dropping sharply in a single year, with the receipts side of this path assuming revenue reaches 21.68% of GDP by 2036 (see NDD-MET-009) and the spending side assuming mandatory spending stays at or above its hard floor (see NDD-MET-017-USD).
Feasibility
This target is the deficit path arithmetically required to produce NDD-MET-001's debt trajectory. The receipts/spending mix used to reach it is modeled on the actual 1994-2001 U.S. episode: revenue rising to 21.68% of GDP by 2036 (see NDD-MET-009), and mandatory spending held to a hard floor (see NDD-MET-017 and NDD-MET-017-USD) with discretionary spending absorbing the resulting transition.
Benefits
If Met: Following the smoothed deficit path that actually produces NDD-MET-001's debt glidepath brings the budget to -$0.53 T by 2036 -- instead of a projected $3.12 T deficit under the current baseline.
If Not Met: Left unchecked, the annual deficit grows to $3.12 T by 2036.
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NDD-MET-005: Annual federal deficit (nominal dollars)
Current Value: $1,774.7 billion (2025)
Trend: Deficit improved by $40.7 billion from FY2024 to FY2025 (Improving)
Metric Evidence:
| Type | Period | Target | Value | Source |
|---|
| Actual | 2001 | --- | -$0.13 T | FRED |
| Actual | 2006 | --- | $0.25 T | FRED |
| Actual | 2011 | --- | $1.30 T | FRED |
| Actual | 2016 | --- | $0.58 T | FRED |
| Actual | 2021 | --- | $2.77 T | FRED |
| Actual | 2024 | --- | $1.82 T | FRED |
| Actual | 2025 | --- | $1.77 T | FRED |
| Projection | 2026 | $1.85 T | $1.85 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2027 | $1.32 T | $1.89 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2028 | $1.11 T | $2.08 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2029 | $0.94 T | $2.02 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2030 | $0.80 T | $2.20 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2031 | $0.63 T | $2.29 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2032 | $0.44 T | $2.44 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2033 | $0.24 T | $2.78 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2034 | $0.02 T | $2.82 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2035 | -$0.24 T | $2.78 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2036 | -$0.53 T | $3.12 T | CBO |
Source Location: FRED FYFSD for actuals; CBO Table 1-1 for projections.
Status: Evidence sources and values verified
Interpretation: Positive values are a deficit (spending exceeds revenue); negative values are a surplus -- lower is better, consistent with every other metric in this file.
Formula: Source series direct
Notes: Sign convention flipped 2026-07-11 at the user's request: deficit is now positive, surplus is now negative.
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NDD-REQ-006
The federal deficit as percent of GDP shall decline from 5.81% in 2026 to a 1.14% surplus in 2036, easing in smoothly (matching NDD-MET-001's smoothed glidepath) and turning into an outright budget surplus around 2035 -- larger than the 1998 surplus (0.78% of GDP) but smaller than the surpluses recorded in 1999-2001 (1.33%, 2.34%, and 1.22% of GDP).
Feasibility
This target is the %GDP version of NDD-MET-005's deficit path, not independently derived. See NDD-MET-005 for the receipts/spending mix (modeled on the actual 1994-2001 U.S. episode) and NDD-MET-001 for the historical precedent behind the underlying pace and its caveats.
Benefits
If Met: Following the smoothed deficit path that actually produces NDD-MET-001's debt glidepath brings the budget to a 1.14%-of-GDP surplus by 2036 -- not just a smaller deficit, but more revenue than total spending -- instead of a projected 6.67% deficit under the current baseline. The U.S. last ran total surpluses in each of fiscal years 1998-2001 (0.78%, 1.33%, 2.34%, and 1.22% of GDP); this target's 2036 surplus is larger than 1998's but smaller than 1999-2001's, including the 2000 peak.
If Not Met: Left unchecked, the deficit grows to 6.67% of GDP by 2036 -- nearly double the 50-year average of 3.8%, and about 7.8 points above this glidepath's endpoint, which reaches a surplus rather than merely a smaller deficit.
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NDD-MET-006: Federal deficit as percent of GDP
Current Value: +5.85% (2025)
Trend: Deficit improved by 0.42 PP from 2024 to 2025 (Improving)
Metric Evidence:
| Type | Period | Target | Value | Source |
|---|
| Actual | 2001 | --- | -1.22% | FRED |
| Actual | 2006 | --- | 1.82% | FRED |
| Actual | 2011 | --- | 8.40% | FRED |
| Actual | 2016 | --- | 3.14% | FRED |
| Actual | 2021 | --- | 12.0% | FRED |
| Actual | 2024 | --- | 6.27% | FRED |
| Actual | 2025 | --- | 5.85% | FRED |
| Projection | 2026 | 5.81% | 5.81% | CBO |
| Projection | 2027 | 3.97% | 5.66% | CBO |
| Projection | 2028 | 3.21% | 6.00% | CBO |
| Projection | 2029 | 2.62% | 5.61% | CBO |
| Projection | 2030 | 2.13% | 5.89% | CBO |
| Projection | 2031 | 1.62% | 5.89% | CBO |
| Projection | 2032 | 1.09% | 6.06% | CBO |
| Projection | 2033 | 0.58% | 6.65% | CBO |
| Projection | 2034 | 0.04% | 6.50% | CBO |
| Projection | 2035 | -0.53% | 6.17% | CBO |
| Projection | 2036 | -1.14% | 6.67% | CBO |
Source Location: FRED data page -> DATE VALUE table.; CBO -> Supplemental Table 1
Status: Evidence sources and values verified
Interpretation: A smaller deficit as a share of GDP generally indicates less fiscal pressure relative to the size of the economy. Positive values are a deficit; negative values are a surplus -- lower is better, consistent with every other metric in this file, after this row's sign convention was flipped 2026-07-11 at the user's request.
Formula: Source series direct
Notes: Annual fiscal-year FRED series. 2024 value is 6.27% and 2025 value is 5.85%.
Target / Timeframe: Target: TBS. Candidate Target: improve trend toward sustainability.
Timeframe: TBS; 2036 for CBO 10-year metrics when applicable.
Benefits / Consequences: Benefits If Met: reduces future borrowing pressure and supports a more sustainable debt path.
Consequences If Not Met: persistent deficits can accelerate debt growth and increase future interest costs.
Top Countries / Inspiration: TBS. Identify peer countries or historical periods where improvement occurred; use for inspiration, not proof of direct transferability.
Sign convention flipped 2026-07-11 at the user's request: deficit is now positive, surplus is now negative (2001's surplus year now reads -1.22%), matching NDD-MET-005.
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NDD-REQ-007
The primary deficit shall improve from $0.81 trillion in 2026 to -$1.98 trillion (a primary surplus) in 2036 -- reaching primary surplus around 2028 and approaching the peak magnitude the United States achieved in 2000 (about 4.5% of GDP) by the final years, while requiring large primary surpluses to be sustained much longer than in 1998-2001.
Feasibility
This target is not independently chosen -- it is the primary-balance path required to produce NDD-MET-001's smoothed debt trajectory once net interest (NDD-MET-012) is subtracted from the total deficit (NDD-MET-005): Primary Deficit = Total Deficit - Net Interest, using this row's positive-when-deficit sign convention throughout. It requires a primary surplus from about 2028 onward. Because NDD-MET-001 now eases into its pace gradually (smoothed 2026-07-11 at the user's request) rather than adopting the full pace at once, this row's final-year ask ($1.98T, 4.23% of GDP) is close to, but slightly below, the actual U.S. primary surplus peak of about 4.54% of GDP reached in 2000 (corrected 2026-07-12 to use CBO's internally consistent fiscal-year figures throughout -- total surplus 2.335% of GDP plus net interest 2.204% of GDP -- after external review found the previous 4.48% figure mixed a fiscal-year total-surplus figure with a calendar-year net-interest figure, the same class of period mismatch corrected elsewhere in this file for NDD-MET-008; corrected 2026-07-11 after an earlier external review found this row had previously and incorrectly claimed the target exceeded the historical peak, based on a mistaken figure of roughly 1% of GDP for the 1998-2001 era). The more demanding feature of this target is not its peak size but sustaining large primary surpluses for many consecutive years, unlike the historical episode. The receipts/spending mix used to reach this is modeled on that same era's tools: revenue rising toward a pace matching the actual 1994-2000 U.S. revenue recovery (NDD-MET-009), mandatory spending held to a hard floor that applies through 2036 and never falls below its 2026 dollar level, with the freeze itself lasting only through 2029 before growth resumes under that floor (NDD-MET-016/017), and discretionary spending absorbing the resulting transition, now a much milder reduction than before (NDD-MET-018/019). See NDD-MET-001 for the full historical precedent and its caveats.
Benefits
If Met: Following the smoothed primary-balance path that actually produces NDD-MET-001's debt glidepath means non-interest spending falls below revenue starting around 2028, reaching a primary surplus of about $1.98 trillion (4.23% of GDP) by 2036 -- close to, but slightly below, the peak primary surplus the U.S. actually achieved in 2000 (about 4.5% of GDP, verified using CBO's fiscal-year historical data); the more demanding feature of this target is sustaining large primary surpluses for many consecutive years, not exceeding the peak size of any single year.
If Not Met: Left unchecked, the primary deficit grows to $0.97 trillion by 2036, even before counting the cost of interest on existing debt -- nearly $3 trillion worse than this glidepath's endpoint.
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NDD-MET-007: Primary deficit or surplus - nominal dollars
Current Value: Primary deficit $805.4 billion (2025)
Trend: -$145.7 billion vs 2024 (a smaller deficit -- an improvement) (Improving)
Metric Evidence:
| Type | Period | Target | Value | Source |
|---|
| Actual | 2001 | --- | -$0.33 T | FRED |
| Actual | 2006 | --- | $0.02 T | FRED |
| Actual | 2011 | --- | $1.07 T | FRED |
| Actual | 2016 | --- | $0.34 T | FRED |
| Actual | 2021 | --- | $2.42 T | FRED |
| Actual | 2024 | --- | $0.95 T | CBO |
| Actual | 2025 | --- | $0.81 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2026 | $0.81 T | $0.81 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2027 | $0.23 T | $0.78 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2028 | -$0.06 T | $0.86 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2029 | -$0.30 T | $0.69 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2030 | -$0.52 T | $0.77 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2031 | -$0.75 T | $0.74 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2032 | -$1.00 T | $0.77 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2033 | -$1.21 T | $1.00 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2034 | -$1.44 T | $0.92 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2035 | -$1.70 T | $0.76 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2036 | -$1.98 T | $0.97 T | CBO |
Source Location: CBO Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 -> By the Numbers PDF -> Table 1-1 / By the Numbers Table 1-1 -> Primary deficit (-); 2024 and 2025 primary deficit recomputed 2026-07-11 (after external review found the prior trend didn't reconcile with CBO's own total-deficit and net-interest figures) as total deficit minus net interest: 2024 approximately $951.1B, 2025 approximately $805.4B, an improvement of about $145.7B; CBO 2026-2036 Budget Outlook / Data and Supplemental Information -> 10-Year Budget Projections for primary-deficit projections.
Status: Evidence sources and values verified
Interpretation: This evidence row documents primary deficit for FY2025 using a user-accessible source. Positive values are a deficit; negative values are a surplus -- lower is better, consistent with every other metric in this file, after this row's sign convention was flipped 2026-07-11 at the user's request.
Formula: Primary deficit = Total deficit (NDD-MET-005) - Net interest (NDD-MET-012)
Notes: Metrics Home $804.6B not easy to find; use easy-to-find CBO rounded $805B as display evidence. Sign convention flipped 2026-07-11 at the user's request: deficit is now positive, surplus is now negative, matching NDD-MET-005/006.
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NDD-REQ-008
The primary deficit as percent of GDP shall improve from 2.55% in 2026 to -4.23% (a primary surplus) in 2036 -- reaching primary surplus around 2028 and approaching the peak magnitude the United States achieved in 2000 (about 4.5% of GDP) by the final years, while requiring large primary surpluses to be sustained much longer than in 1998-2001.
Feasibility
This target is the %GDP version of NDD-MET-007's smoothed primary-balance path, not independently derived. It requires a primary surplus from about 2028 onward, growing to 4.23% of GDP by 2036 -- close to, but slightly below, the actual U.S. primary surplus peak of about 4.54% of GDP reached in 2000 (corrected 2026-07-12 to use CBO's internally consistent fiscal-year figures throughout -- total surplus 2.335% of GDP plus net interest 2.204% of GDP -- after external review found the previous 4.48% figure mixed a fiscal-year total-surplus figure with a calendar-year net-interest figure, the same class of period mismatch corrected elsewhere in this file for NDD-MET-008). See NDD-MET-007 for the receipts/spending mix assumed and NDD-MET-001 for the full historical precedent and its caveats.
Benefits
If Met: Following the smoothed primary-balance path that actually produces NDD-MET-001's debt glidepath means non-interest spending falls below revenue starting around 2028, reaching a primary surplus of about 4.2% of GDP by 2036 -- close to, but slightly below, the peak primary surplus the U.S. actually achieved in 2000 (about 4.5% of GDP, verified using CBO's fiscal-year historical data); the more demanding feature of this target is sustaining large primary surpluses for many consecutive years, not exceeding the peak size of any single year.
If Not Met: New tax cuts or spending increases beyond current law could easily erase the modest improvement CBO already projects, and staying on the current baseline leaves the primary deficit around 2.1% of GDP in 2036 instead of this glidepath's roughly 4.2%-of-GDP surplus -- a swing of more than 6.3 percentage points.
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NDD-MET-008: Primary deficit or surplus as percent of GDP
Current Value: +2.65% (2025)
Trend: -0.63 PP vs 2024 (a smaller deficit -- an improvement) (Improving)
Metric Evidence:
| Type | Period | Target | Value | Source |
|---|
| Actual | 2001 | --- | -3.18% | CBO |
| Actual | 2006 | --- | 0.16% | CBO |
| Actual | 2011 | --- | 6.92% | CBO |
| Actual | 2016 | --- | 1.85% | CBO |
| Actual | 2021 | --- | 10.52% | CBO |
| Actual | 2024 | --- | 3.29% | CBO |
| Actual | 2025 | --- | 2.65% | CBO |
| Projection | 2026 | 2.55% | 2.55% | CBO |
| Projection | 2027 | 0.70% | 2.34% | CBO |
| Projection | 2028 | -0.17% | 2.49% | CBO |
| Projection | 2029 | -0.83% | 1.93% | CBO |
| Projection | 2030 | -1.38% | 2.06% | CBO |
| Projection | 2031 | -1.93% | 1.90% | CBO |
| Projection | 2032 | -2.48% | 1.91% | CBO |
| Projection | 2033 | -2.90% | 2.38% | CBO |
| Projection | 2034 | -3.33% | 2.11% | CBO |
| Projection | 2035 | -3.77% | 1.69% | CBO |
| Projection | 2036 | -4.23% | 2.08% | CBO |
Source Location: Actual values (2001-2025) are derived from CBO's February 2026 Historical Budget Data workbook, using the fiscal-year total deficit or surplus and fiscal-year net interest values from that workbook's separate tables (the workbook does not report primary deficit as its own line item for historical years; it must be derived as total deficit minus net interest, both on a consistent fiscal-year basis -- corrected 2026-07-12 after external review found this note previously and inaccurately said the workbook 'reports primary deficit' directly). Corrected 2026-07-11 after an earlier external review found the prior method -- subtracting NDD-MET-013's net interest (FRED FYOIGDA188S, a calendar-year annual series) from FRED's FYFSDFYGDP (a fiscal-year series) -- mixed two different GDP period conventions in the same subtraction, producing small but real errors in every actual-year value (e.g. 2025 read 2.70% instead of the fiscal-year-consistent 2.65%). Projection years (2026-2036) use CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036, publication 62105, Table 1-1, which does report Primary Deficit as its own line item directly for projection years; the percentages shown divide CBO's dollar-denominated Primary Deficit and GDP figures from that table for precision beyond CBO's published 1-decimal rounding.
Status: Evidence sources and values verified
Interpretation: This shows the size or burden of primary deficit or surplus as percent of GDP for 2025. Positive values are a deficit; negative values are a surplus -- lower is better, consistent with every other metric in this file, after this row's sign convention was flipped 2026-07-11 at the user's request.
Formula: Primary Deficit = Total Deficit (% GDP) - Net Interest (% GDP), using this row's positive-when-deficit sign convention (verified 2026-07-11 using a projection year, where this formula still applies: 2026 total deficit 5.81% - net interest 3.26% = 2.55%, matching the displayed 2026 evidence row). Corrected 2026-07-12: this field previously said actual years 'no longer use this subtraction,' which was wrong -- actual years are still derived by this same subtraction, now using CBO's own fiscal-year-consistent total-deficit and net-interest figures for both terms instead of combining two FRED series with different period conventions (see SourceLocation).
Notes: Sign convention flipped 2026-07-11 at the user's request: deficit is now positive, surplus is now negative, matching NDD-MET-005/006/007. Actual-year values corrected twice: first (2026-07-11) for a stale current value and one data error (2021), then (2026-07-11, second pass) after external review found the actual-year derivation mixed a fiscal-year FRED series with a calendar-year one; all seven actual years were rebuilt from CBO's own fiscal-year-consistent historical workbook (2025 CurrentValue is now 2.65%, not the earlier 2.70%). Corrected a third time 2026-07-12: this Notes field, the SourceLocation, and the Formula field all still described the superseded 2.70% figure or otherwise mischaracterized the current derivation method after the second correction; all three fields were rewritten to match the current, fiscal-year-consistent sourcing.
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NDD-REQ-009
Federal receipts as percent of GDP shall end higher than its 2026 starting point, rising from 17.54% in 2026 to 21.68% in 2036, at the pace the U.S. actually achieved from 1994 to 2000.
Feasibility
Federal receipts rose from 17.27% of GDP in 1994 to 19.76% in 2000 (FRED FYFRGDA188S). This row applies that same verified 6-year rate over a 10-year window, reaching 21.68% by 2036 -- above the actual 1990s peak, and this row's own extrapolation beyond precedent, not a level the U.S. has previously sustained.
Benefits
If Met: Growing receipts at the same pace the economy actually achieved from 1994-2000 brings receipts to 21.68% of GDP by 2036, supplying most of what NDD-MET-001's debt glidepath requires alongside spending discipline.
If Not Met: Receipts merely tracking CBO's current baseline (17.77% of GDP by 2036) leaves a gap that would otherwise have to come entirely from spending cuts or additional borrowing.
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NDD-MET-009: Federal receipts as percent of GDP
Current Value: 17.0% (2025)
Trend: +0.23 PP (Improving)
Metric Evidence:
| Type | Period | Target | Value | Source |
|---|
| Actual | 2001 | --- | 18.82% | FRED |
| Actual | 2006 | --- | 17.42% | FRED |
| Actual | 2011 | --- | 14.77% | FRED |
| Actual | 2016 | --- | 17.38% | FRED |
| Actual | 2021 | --- | 17.06% | FRED |
| Actual | 2024 | --- | 16.79% | FRED |
| Actual | 2025 | --- | 17.02% | FRED |
| Projection | 2026 | 17.54% | 17.54% | CBO |
| Projection | 2027 | 17.95% | 17.66% | CBO |
| Projection | 2028 | 18.37% | 17.51% | CBO |
| Projection | 2029 | 18.78% | 17.55% | CBO |
| Projection | 2030 | 19.20% | 17.64% | CBO |
| Projection | 2031 | 19.61% | 17.70% | CBO |
| Projection | 2032 | 20.03% | 17.70% | CBO |
| Projection | 2033 | 20.44% | 17.68% | CBO |
| Projection | 2034 | 20.85% | 17.68% | CBO |
| Projection | 2035 | 21.27% | 17.71% | CBO |
| Projection | 2036 | 21.68% | 17.77% | CBO |
Source Location: FRED FYFRGDA188S for actuals; CBO 2026-2036 Budget Outlook for projections.
Status: Evidence sources and values verified
Interpretation: Unlike spending and debt metrics, a higher value here generally improves the fiscal balance.
Formula: Source series direct
Notes: Matches Metrics Home rounded value.
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NDD-REQ-010
Federal net outlays as percent of GDP shall decline steadily from 23.35% in 2026 to 20.55% in 2036 -- the outlay level consistent with NDD-MET-009's receipts path and NDD-MET-001's smoothed debt glidepath, after accounting for lower-than-baseline interest costs on a shrinking debt.
Feasibility
This target is not independently chosen -- it equals NDD-MET-009's receipts target plus NDD-MET-005's deficit target for each year, so it is arithmetically consistent with both. The near-term decline is driven mainly by discretionary spending absorbing a real, temporary reduction (see NDD-MET-018/019) to protect mandatory spending's hard dollar floor (NDD-MET-016/017, which never falls below its 2026 level), plus interest costs that remain below baseline and eventually flatten and decline (NDD-MET-012) as debt shrinks -- interest costs actually rise for most of the decade in dollar terms, turning downward only in the final year. See NDD-MET-001 for the full historical precedent and its caveats.
Benefits
If Met: Outlays declining steadily from 23.35% to 20.55% of GDP over the decade -- a smooth, gradual decline rather than a sharp near-term dip and recovery -- reflects both a much milder discretionary-spending adjustment (NDD-MET-018/019) and interest costs that remain below baseline and eventually flatten and decline (NDD-MET-012) as debt shrinks.
If Not Met: Left unchecked, net outlays grow to 24.44% of GDP by 2036, exceeding their 50-year average of 21.2% by an even wider margin than today, and about 3.9 points above this glidepath's endpoint.
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NDD-MET-010: Federal net outlays as percent of GDP
Current Value: 22.8% (2025)
Trend: -0.20 PP (Improving)
Metric Evidence:
| Type | Period | Target | Value | Source |
|---|
| Actual | 2001 | --- | 17.60% | FRED |
| Actual | 2006 | --- | 19.22% | FRED |
| Actual | 2011 | --- | 23.10% | FRED |
| Actual | 2016 | --- | 20.49% | FRED |
| Actual | 2021 | --- | 28.75% | FRED |
| Actual | 2024 | --- | 22.99% | FRED |
| Actual | 2025 | --- | 22.79% | FRED |
| Projection | 2026 | 23.35% | 23.35% | CBO |
| Projection | 2027 | 21.93% | 23.33% | CBO |
| Projection | 2028 | 21.58% | 23.51% | CBO |
| Projection | 2029 | 21.41% | 23.16% | CBO |
| Projection | 2030 | 21.33% | 23.52% | CBO |
| Projection | 2031 | 21.24% | 23.59% | CBO |
| Projection | 2032 | 21.11% | 23.76% | CBO |
| Projection | 2033 | 21.02% | 24.34% | CBO |
| Projection | 2034 | 20.89% | 24.18% | CBO |
| Projection | 2035 | 20.74% | 23.88% | CBO |
| Projection | 2036 | 20.55% | 24.44% | CBO |
Source Location: FRED FYONGDA188S data page -> Federal Net Outlays as Percent of Gross Domestic Product, DATE VALUE table (2024: 22.98880%, rounded to 23.0%; 2025: 22.79137%, rounded to 22.8%); CBO 2026-2036 Budget Outlook and Data and Supplemental Information -> federal outlays as percent of GDP (2026: 23.3%; 2031: 23.6%; 2036: 24.4%).
Status: Evidence sources and values verified
Interpretation: This shows the size or burden of federal net outlays as percent of gdp for 2025. A higher value is generally more concerning when it reflects debt, deficits, outlays, or interest burden.
Formula: Source series direct
Notes: Matches Metrics Home rounded value.
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NDD-REQ-011
The federal spending-to-revenue ratio shall decline from 133.11% in 2026 to 94.76% in 2036 -- the ratio implied by NDD-MET-010's outlay path divided by NDD-MET-009's receipts path, both already tied to NDD-MET-001's smoothed debt glidepath. By 2036 the government collects slightly more than it spends.
Feasibility
This target is not independently chosen -- it is NDD-MET-010's outlay target divided by NDD-MET-009's receipts target for each year, so it is arithmetically consistent with both by construction. See NDD-MET-009 for the revenue assumption (paced on the actual 1994-2000 U.S. revenue recovery) and NDD-MET-010 for the outlay assumption, and NDD-MET-001 for the full historical precedent behind the underlying debt pace and its caveats.
Benefits
If Met: Following the outlay and receipts paths that produce NDD-MET-001's debt glidepath brings spending below revenue by 2036 -- the government would collect about 5 cents more than it spends for every dollar, down from spending $1.34 for every dollar collected today.
If Not Met: Left unchecked, the government spends $1.38 for every dollar it collects by 2036, up from $1.33 today -- about 43 cents on the dollar more than this glidepath's endpoint.
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NDD-MET-011: Federal spending-to-revenue ratio
Current Value: 133.9% (2025)
Trend: -3.01 PP vs 2024 (Improving)
Metric Evidence:
Source Location: Derived from NDD-MET-010 (Federal net outlays as percent of GDP) divided by NDD-MET-009 (Federal receipts as percent of GDP) for each matching period, times 100. Both series originate from FRED FYONGDA188S (outlays) and FRED FYFRGDA188S (receipts) for actuals, and CBO 2026-2036 Budget Outlook, publication 62105, Table 1-1, for projections. Because both series are expressed as percent of GDP, GDP cancels in the ratio, so this is equivalent to net outlays divided by receipts in dollar terms.
Status: Evidence sources and values verified
Interpretation: Shows how many dollars the federal government spends for every dollar of revenue it collects. A value above 100% means spending exceeds receipts (a deficit); a value at 100% or below means receipts cover spending. At 133.9%, the government spent roughly $1.34 for every $1.00 it collected in 2025.
Formula: Federal Net Outlays as Percent of GDP / Federal Receipts as Percent of GDP * 100
Notes: Corrected 2026-07-11: this row previously carried NDD-MET-001's debt-held-by-public-%-GDP evidence table by mistake. MetricText and the evidence data described debt-%-GDP, while RequirementText and Formula already (correctly) described a spending-to-revenue ratio. Evidence table rebuilt as NDD-MET-010 divided by NDD-MET-009 for each matching period; no new external sourcing was needed since both inputs were already verified elsewhere in this file.
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NDD-REQ-012
Net interest outlays shall grow from $1.04 T in 2026 to a peak near $1.47 T around 2035, then decline to $1.46 T by 2036 -- interest costs stop growing altogether in the final year, since debt (NDD-MET-001) is by then shrinking fast enough to outweigh CBO's exact assumed interest rates.
Feasibility
Applies CBO's own projected average interest rate (3.404% to 3.939%, exact rates from CBO's published rate table) to the prior year-end value of NDD-MET-001's declining debt stock, with 2026 itself anchored directly to CBO's own baseline net interest. All of the improvement comes from carrying less debt, not from borrowing more cheaply.
Benefits
If Met: Interest costs grow for most of this path -- there's no way around paying interest on existing debt while debt is still historically high -- but by around 2035 the shrinking debt stock outweighs even CBO's own assumption of rising rates. Reaching $1.46 T by 2036 instead of a projected $2.14 T leaves nearly $680 billion a year more for other priorities.
If Not Met: Left unchecked, net interest costs more than double to $2.14 T by 2036, becoming one of the largest single items in the federal budget.
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NDD-MET-012: Net interest outlays - nominal dollars
Current Value: $970 billion (2025)
Trend: $90.2 billion (+10.2%) (Worsening)
Metric Evidence:
| Type | Period | Target | Value | Source |
|---|
| Actual | 2001 | --- | $206 B | FRED |
| Actual | 2006 | --- | $227 B | FRED |
| Actual | 2011 | --- | $230 B | FRED |
| Actual | 2016 | --- | $240 B | FRED |
| Actual | 2021 | --- | $352 B | FRED |
| Actual | 2024 | --- | $880 B | FRED |
| Actual | 2025 | --- | $970 B | FRED |
| Projection | 2026 | $1.04 T | $1.04 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2027 | $1.09 T | $1.11 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2028 | $1.18 T | $1.22 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2029 | $1.25 T | $1.32 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2030 | $1.31 T | $1.43 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2031 | $1.37 T | $1.55 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2032 | $1.42 T | $1.67 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2033 | $1.45 T | $1.78 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2034 | $1.46 T | $1.90 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2035 | $1.47 T | $2.02 T | CBO |
| Projection | 2036 | $1.46 T | $2.14 T | CBO |
Source Location: FRED FYOINT for actuals; CBO Table 1-1 for projections (2026 exact: $1,038.976B).
Status: Evidence sources and values verified
Interpretation: This evidence row documents net interest outlays for 2025 using a user-accessible source.
Formula: Source series direct; trend = YoY difference/percent change
Notes: Matches Metrics Home value/trend.
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NDD-REQ-013
Federal interest outlays as percent of GDP shall rise to a peak near 3.53% around 2031-2032, then decline to 3.13% by 2036 -- net lower than the 3.26% starting point, once debt (NDD-MET-001) shrinks enough to outweigh CBO's exact assumed interest rates (imported 2026-07-11).
Feasibility
This target is the %GDP version of NDD-MET-012's interest-cost path, not independently derived. Because it uses CBO's own assumed interest rates applied to a smaller debt stock, interest costs as a share of GDP peak around 2032 and then decline -- a smaller debt stock eventually outweighs CBO's own assumption of rising rates (corrected 2026-07-11: this note previously said '2030-2031,' which had not been updated when the peak shifted during the smoothing pass in entry 53). See NDD-MET-012 for the rate assumptions and NDD-MET-001 for the historical precedent behind the underlying debt pace and its caveats.
Benefits
If Met: Because a smaller debt stock eventually outweighs CBO's own assumption of rising interest rates, interest costs as a share of the economy peak near 3.53% around 2031-2032 and then decline, ending at 3.13% of GDP in 2036 -- net lower than today -- instead of climbing to a projected 4.59%.
If Not Met: Left unchecked, interest costs grow to 4.59% of GDP by 2036 -- their highest recorded level in at least 85 years, and about 1.5 percentage points above this glidepath's endpoint.
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NDD-MET-013: Federal interest outlays as percent of GDP
Current Value: 3.15% (2025)
Trend: +0.15 PP (Worsening)
Metric Evidence:
| Type | Period | Target | Value | Source |
|---|
| Actual | 2001 | --- | 1.95% | FRED |
| Actual | 2006 | --- | 1.64% | FRED |
| Actual | 2011 | --- | 1.47% | FRED |
| Actual | 2016 | --- | 1.28% | FRED |
| Actual | 2021 | --- | 1.49% | FRED |
| Actual | 2024 | --- | 3.00% | FRED |
| Actual | 2025 | --- | 3.15% | FRED |
| Projection | 2026 | 3.26% | 3.26% | CBO |
| Projection | 2027 | 3.29% | 3.33% | CBO |
| Projection | 2028 | 3.40% | 3.51% | CBO |
| Projection | 2029 | 3.47% | 3.68% | CBO |
| Projection | 2030 | 3.50% | 3.83% | CBO |
| Projection | 2031 | 3.53% | 3.99% | CBO |
| Projection | 2032 | 3.53% | 4.15% | CBO |
| Projection | 2033 | 3.46% | 4.27% | CBO |
| Projection | 2034 | 3.37% | 4.39% | CBO |
| Projection | 2035 | 3.26% | 4.49% | CBO |
| Projection | 2036 | 3.13% | 4.59% | CBO |
Source Location: FRED data page -> DATE VALUE table.; CBO -> Supplemental Table 1
Status: Evidence sources and values verified
Interpretation: This shows the size or burden of net interest outlays as percent of gdp for 2025. A higher value is generally more concerning when it reflects debt, deficits, outlays, or interest burden.
Formula: Source series direct (calculated by FRED from FYOINT and GDPA)
Notes: User verified links, text, numbers.
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NDD-REQ-014
Net interest outlays as percent of federal receipts shall decline from 18.6% in 2026 to 14.4% in 2036 -- the ratio implied by NDD-MET-012's exact-rate interest-cost path divided by NDD-MET-009's receipts path.
Feasibility
This target is not independently chosen -- it is NDD-MET-012's interest-cost target divided by NDD-MET-009's receipts target for each year. See NDD-MET-012 for the interest-rate assumptions, NDD-MET-009 for the revenue assumption, and NDD-MET-001 for the full historical precedent and its caveats.
Benefits
If Met: With interest costs peaking and then flattening (NDD-MET-012) while receipts keep growing (NDD-MET-009), interest's share of every tax dollar collected falls from about 18.6 cents to about 14.4 cents by 2036, instead of rising to a projected 25.8 cents.
If Not Met: Left unchecked, more than a quarter of every tax dollar collected (25.8%) goes to interest payments by 2036, instead of public priorities -- about 11.4 points above this glidepath's endpoint.
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NDD-MET-014: Net interest outlays as percent of federal receipts
Current Value: 18.5% (2025)
Trend: +0.64 PP (Worsening)
Metric Evidence:
| Type | Period | Target | Value | Source |
|---|
| Actual | 2001 | --- | 10.4% | FRED |
| Actual | 2006 | --- | 9.4% | FRED |
| Actual | 2011 | --- | 10.0% | FRED |
| Actual | 2016 | --- | 7.3% | FRED |
| Actual | 2021 | --- | 8.7% | FRED |
| Actual | 2024 | --- | 17.9% | FRED |
| Actual | 2025 | --- | 18.5% | FRED |
| Projection | 2026 | 18.6% | 18.6% | CBO |
| Projection | 2027 | 18.3% | 18.8% | CBO |
| Projection | 2028 | 18.5% | 20.1% | CBO |
| Projection | 2029 | 18.5% | 21.0% | CBO |
| Projection | 2030 | 18.3% | 21.7% | CBO |
| Projection | 2031 | 18.0% | 22.5% | CBO |
| Projection | 2032 | 17.6% | 23.4% | CBO |
| Projection | 2033 | 16.9% | 24.1% | CBO |
| Projection | 2034 | 16.2% | 24.8% | CBO |
| Projection | 2035 | 15.3% | 25.3% | CBO |
| Projection | 2036 | 14.4% | 25.8% | CBO |
Source Location: FRED FYOINT data page -> Federal Outlays: Interest and FRED FYFR data page -> Federal Receipts, DATE VALUE tables; actual net-interest share of receipts derived as FYOINT / FYFR (2024: 879,879 / 4,919,884 = 17.9%; 2025: 970,065 / 5,236,421 = 18.5%); CBO 2026-2036 Budget Outlook and Data and Supplemental Information -> projections derived from exact CBO dollar figures, not rounded percentages (2026: net interest $1,039B / receipts $5,596B = 18.57%, rounds to 18.6%; note corrected 2026-07-11 after external review found the prior note's 3.3/17.5=18.9% arithmetic didn't match the displayed 18.6% value; 2031: net interest $1,548B / receipts $6,869B = 22.5%; 2036: net interest $2,144B / receipts $8,301B = 25.8%).
Status: Evidence sources and values verified
Interpretation: This shows the size or burden of net interest outlays as percent of federal receipts for 2025. A higher value is generally more concerning when it reflects debt, deficits, outlays, or interest burden.
Formula: Federal Outlays: Interest / Federal Receipts * 100
Notes: User verified links, text, numbers.
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NDD-REQ-015
Net interest as percent of federal outlays shall peak near 16.7% around 2032 and decline to 15.2% by 2036 -- the ratio implied by NDD-MET-012's exact-rate interest-cost path divided by NDD-MET-010's outlay path.
Feasibility
This target is not independently chosen -- it is NDD-MET-012's interest-cost target divided by NDD-MET-010's outlay target for each year. See NDD-MET-012 for the interest-rate assumptions, NDD-MET-010 for the outlay assumption, and NDD-MET-001 for the full historical precedent and its caveats.
Benefits
If Met: Interest's share of the budget rises for several years (spending has to fall further before the smaller debt stock catches up), peaking near 16.7% around 2032, then declines to 15.2% by 2036 -- above where it started but well below the baseline's trajectory -- instead of climbing to a projected 18.8%.
If Not Met: Left unchecked, interest costs grow to nearly one-fifth of all federal spending (18.8%) by 2036 -- about 3.6 points above this glidepath's endpoint.
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NDD-MET-015: Net interest share of federal outlays
Current Value: 13.8% (2025)
Trend: +0.77 PP vs 2024 (Worsening)
Metric Evidence:
| Type | Period | Target | Value | Source |
|---|
| Actual | 2001 | --- | 11.07% | FRED |
| Actual | 2006 | --- | 8.53% | FRED |
| Actual | 2011 | --- | 6.38% | FRED |
| Actual | 2016 | --- | 6.23% | FRED |
| Actual | 2021 | --- | 5.17% | FRED |
| Actual | 2024 | --- | 13.1% | FRED |
| Actual | 2025 | --- | 13.8% | FRED |
| Projection | 2026 | 13.9% | 13.9% | CBO |
| Projection | 2027 | 15.0% | 14.3% | CBO |
| Projection | 2028 | 15.8% | 14.9% | CBO |
| Projection | 2029 | 16.2% | 15.9% | CBO |
| Projection | 2030 | 16.4% | 16.3% | CBO |
| Projection | 2031 | 16.6% | 16.9% | CBO |
| Projection | 2032 | 16.7% | 17.5% | CBO |
| Projection | 2033 | 16.5% | 17.5% | CBO |
| Projection | 2034 | 16.1% | 18.2% | CBO |
| Projection | 2035 | 15.7% | 18.8% | CBO |
| Projection | 2036 | 15.2% | 18.8% | CBO |
Source Location: FRED FYOINT data page -> Federal Outlays: Interest; FRED FYONET data page -> Federal Net Outlays; actual net-interest share of outlays derived as FYOINT / FYONET (2024: 879,879 / 6,735,261 = 13.1%; 2025: 970,065 / 7,011,105 = 13.8%); CBO 2026-2036 Budget Outlook and Data and Supplemental Information -> projections derived from exact CBO dollar figures, not rounded percentages, for every year 2026-2036 (2026: $1,038.976B / $7,448.619B = 13.948%, rounds to 13.9%; 2031: $1,548B / $9,155B = 16.9%; 2036: $2,144B / $11,416B = 18.8%). Corrected a second time 2026-07-11: an external review found this note's exact-dollar figures were already correct for 2026/2031/2036 but the evidence table itself still showed the old rounded-percentage-derived values (e.g. 2031 showed 17.0%, not the 16.9% this note stated) for the years in between -- the full table (2027-2036) has now been recomputed from exact dollars to match this note. Corrected a third time 2026-07-11: this note's own 2026 arithmetic still said '14.0%' after the evidence table itself had already been corrected to 13.9%; fixed to show the precise calculation.
Status: Evidence sources and values verified
Interpretation: This shows the size or burden of net interest share of federal outlays for 2025. A higher value is generally more concerning when it reflects debt, deficits, outlays, or interest burden.
Formula: Federal Outlays: Interest / Federal Net Outlays * 100
Notes: Metrics Home wording confirmed; data matches.
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NDD-REQ-016
Mandatory spending shall never fall below its 2026 dollar level in any year through 2036 (see NDD-MET-017-USD for the dollar path) -- a hard floor, not a target for this row's percentage itself. As a share of federal outlays, that floor means the percentage rises to about 62.0% by 2027 (as discretionary spending, not mandatory, absorbs the near-term budget tightening) before settling near 61.4% by 2036.
Feasibility
This row's real target is NDD-MET-017-USD (mandatory spending in dollar terms), held to a hard floor that never falls below its 2026 level -- explicitly not cut to help close the debt gap, consistent with protecting Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid beneficiaries. This row (the % of outlays) is a mechanical byproduct of dividing that floored dollar path by total outlays: since discretionary spending (NDD-MET-018/019) absorbs most of the near-term budget tightening instead of mandatory spending, mandatory's percentage of the (smaller) total temporarily rises. See NDD-MET-005 for how the full receipts/spending mix was allocated and NDD-MET-001 for the historical precedent behind the underlying pace.
Benefits
If Met: The protection in this scenario is a hard dollar floor: mandatory spending -- Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and other entitlement programs -- never falls below its 2026 level in any year (see NDD-MET-017-USD), even as the rest of the budget tightens. With the smoothed glidepath, this row's percentage moves only modestly (62.0% to 61.4%), since discretionary spending (NDD-MET-018/019) absorbs a much milder adjustment than under the original unsmoothed version.
If Not Met: If mandatory spending were instead allowed to flex downward to help close the debt gap, an earlier version of this scenario showed it would need to fall by roughly $930 billion in a single year (2027) relative to its 2026 level -- a real cut to entitlement spending, which this row's hard floor is specifically designed to prevent.
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NDD-MET-016: Mandatory spending as percent of federal outlays
Current Value: 59.5% (2025)
Trend: -0.7 PP vs 2024; -10.4 PP vs 2020 (Context-dependent)
Metric Evidence:
| Type | Period | Target | Value | Source |
|---|
| Actual | 2023 | --- | 61.3% | CBO |
| Actual | 2024 | --- | 60.2% | CBO |
| Actual | 2025 | --- | 59.5% | CBO |
| Projection | 2026 | 60.8% | 60.8% | CBO |
| Projection | 2027 | 62.0% | 61.5% | CBO |
| Projection | 2028 | 60.5% | 61.4% | CBO |
| Projection | 2029 | 58.8% | 60.8% | CBO |
| Projection | 2030 | 58.6% | 61.1% | CBO |
| Projection | 2031 | 58.8% | 61.0% | CBO |
| Projection | 2032 | 59.0% | 61.0% | CBO |
| Projection | 2033 | 59.5% | 61.7% | CBO |
| Projection | 2034 | 60.2% | 61.4% | CBO |
| Projection | 2035 | 60.9% | 60.9% | CBO |
| Projection | 2036 | 61.4% | 61.6% | CBO |
Source Location: CBO February 2026 historical workbook (exact dollar figures): mandatory outlays and total outlays for 2023 ($3,758.276B / $6,134.673B = 61.3%), 2024 ($4,060.781B / $6,750.856B = 60.2%), and 2025 ($4,167.623B / $7,009.986B = 59.5%); CBO 2026-2036 Budget Outlook and Data and Supplemental Information -> projections derived from exact CBO dollar figures, not rounded percentages, for every year 2026-2036 (2026: $4,529B / $7,449B = 60.8%; 2031: $5,582B / $9,155B = 61.0%; 2036: $7,028B / $11,416B = 61.6%). Corrected a third time 2026-07-11: an external review found this note had mistakenly assigned 2025's mandatory dollar figure ($4,168B) to 2024 as well, producing an incorrect 60.7% that happened to be close to the true value (60.2%) by coincidence; both 2023 and 2024 have now been recomputed from CBO's exact historical workbook rather than rounded infographic figures.
Status: Evidence sources and values verified
Interpretation: This shows the size or burden of mandatory spending as percent of federal outlays for 2025. A higher value is generally more concerning when it reflects debt, deficits, outlays, or interest burden.
Formula: Mandatory Outlays (CBO; excludes net interest) / Total Outlays * 100
Notes: Resolved 2026-07-11: CBO's Mandatory Spending in Fiscal Year 2025 infographic (publication 61951) states mandatory outlays totaled $4.2T in 2025, reported separately from net interest ($970B, per CBO's Federal Budget infographic, publication 61950) and discretionary spending ($1.9T, per CBO's Discretionary Spending infographic, publication 61952) -- the three figures sum to total outlays. CBO's own categorization treats mandatory spending as excluding net interest by definition, so the value already used here was correct; the Hold flag was based on an unfounded worry. Trend field corrected 2026-07-11 (external review found it did not match the displayed 2024/2025 evidence values). 2025 and 2026 values corrected a second time the same day: an external review found they had been computed by dividing already-rounded one-decimal percentages rather than exact CBO dollar amounts (e.g. 2026 was 60.9% from 14.2/23.3, corrected to 60.8% from $4,529B/$7,449B). Other rows in this file have the same class of issue and were corrected in the same pass.
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NDD-REQ-017
Mandatory spending shall never fall below $4,529 B (its 2026 dollar level, see NDD-MET-017-USD) in any year through 2036. As percent of GDP, that floor means this metric dips to about 12.5% around 2030, then ends lower than its 2026 starting value of 14.2%, at 12.6% by 2036 -- staying below today's level throughout.
Feasibility
Mandatory spending is held to a hard dollar floor (see NDD-MET-017-USD) through 2036; the freeze itself lasts only through 2029 before growth resumes under that floor. As %GDP, this mechanically dips before rising as the frozen dollar amount shrinks relative to a growing economy, then GDP growth outpaces the resumed spending growth.
Benefits
If Met: Mandatory spending -- Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and other entitlement programs -- is held to a hard dollar floor that never declines (see NDD-MET-017-USD for the dollar path). A multi-year freeze is still a real, difficult ask, but it is categorically different from a cut below current spending.
If Not Met: Left unchecked, mandatory spending grows to 15.0% of GDP ($7,028 B) by 2036 under the CBO baseline.
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NDD-MET-017: Mandatory spending as percent of GDP
Current Value: 13.7% (2025)
Trend: -0.3 PP vs 2024; -7.7 PP vs 2020 (Context-dependent)
Metric Evidence:
| Type | Period | Target | Value | Source |
|---|
| Projection | 2026 | 14.2% | 14.2% | CBO |
| Projection | 2027 | 13.6% | 14.4% | CBO |
| Projection | 2028 | 13.1% | 14.1% | CBO |
| Projection | 2029 | 12.6% | 14.4% | CBO |
| Projection | 2030 | 12.5% | 14.4% | CBO |
| Projection | 2031 | 12.5% | 14.4% | CBO |
| Projection | 2032 | 12.5% | 14.6% | CBO |
| Projection | 2033 | 12.5% | 14.7% | CBO |
| Projection | 2034 | 12.6% | 14.8% | CBO |
| Projection | 2035 | 12.6% | 14.9% | CBO |
| Projection | 2036 | 12.6% | 15.0% | CBO |
Source Location: CBO Mandatory Spending infographics and CBO 2026-2036 Budget Outlook.
Status: Evidence sources and values verified
Interpretation: A higher value is generally more concerning when it reflects debt, deficits, outlays, or interest burden.
Formula: Source series direct
Notes: Split 2026-07-13 into two cross-referenced metrics per the agreed design: this row (%GDP) and NDD-MET-017-USD (dollars). Previously this row's own RequirementText described a dollar floor ($4.53T never declining) even though this metric's evidence series is %GDP -- that dollar floor is now NDD-MET-017-USD's own target series, referenced from here via ref(), not embedded as prose.
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NDD-REQ-018
Discretionary spending absorbs the transition needed to protect NDD-MET-017-USD's mandatory-spending floor: it falls from $1.88 trillion (2026) to about $1.68 trillion (2027) -- a real but now much milder cut of roughly 10%, versus the roughly 46% cut the original unsmoothed version required -- before recovering to approximately its own CBO-baseline dollar level by 2030. Because total target outlays are lower than CBO's baseline outlays, discretionary spending remains a larger share of target outlays than its own baseline share from 2030 onward, even at the same dollar level.
Feasibility
This row carries the real, honest cost of protecting mandatory spending's floor (NDD-MET-016/017) on an aggressive debt glidepath: a temporary but now much milder cut to defense, infrastructure, research, and other discretionary priorities, deepest in 2027 (roughly a 10% reduction from 2026, versus 46% under the original unsmoothed glidepath) and fully recovered to CBO's own baseline by 2030. Smoothing NDD-MET-001's pace (2026-07-11, at the user's request) meaningfully softened this row's near-term cost, which was previously the most severe tradeoff in this scenario. See NDD-MET-005 for how the full receipts/spending mix was allocated and NDD-MET-001 for the historical precedent behind the underlying debt pace.
Benefits
If Met: Protecting mandatory spending's dollar floor (NDD-MET-016/017) requires discretionary spending -- defense, infrastructure, research, and other essential public functions -- to absorb a real but now mild cut: down to about $1.68 trillion in 2027 (about 10% below 2026, versus 46% under the original unsmoothed glidepath), recovering to its own CBO-baseline level by 2030. Smoothing NDD-MET-001's pace made this the biggest single improvement in this scenario's near-term cost.
If Not Met: Under the CBO baseline, discretionary spending's share shrinks gradually to 19.7% by 2036 without any sharp near-term cut -- the difference is that this glidepath's (now mild) transition is compressed into 2027-2029, rather than spread smoothly across the decade as the baseline is.
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NDD-MET-018: Discretionary spending as percent of federal outlays
Current Value: 26.7% (2025)
Trend: -0.1 PP vs 2024; +1.9 PP vs 2020 (Context-dependent)
Metric Evidence:
| Type | Period | Target | Value | Source |
|---|
| Actual | 2023 | --- | 28.0% | CBO |
| Actual | 2024 | --- | 26.8% | CBO |
| Actual | 2025 | --- | 26.7% | CBO |
| Projection | 2026 | 25.2% | 25.2% | CBO |
| Projection | 2027 | 23.0% | 24.2% | CBO |
| Projection | 2028 | 23.7% | 23.7% | CBO |
| Projection | 2029 | 25.0% | 23.4% | CBO |
| Projection | 2030 | 24.9% | 22.6% | CBO |
| Projection | 2031 | 24.6% | 22.1% | CBO |
| Projection | 2032 | 24.3% | 21.6% | CBO |
| Projection | 2033 | 24.0% | 20.8% | CBO |
| Projection | 2034 | 23.7% | 20.5% | CBO |
| Projection | 2035 | 23.4% | 20.3% | CBO |
| Projection | 2036 | 23.4% | 19.7% | CBO |
Source Location: CBO Discretionary Spending in Fiscal Year 2024 and 2025 infographics; CBO 2026-2036 Budget Outlook and Data and Supplemental Information; actual and projected discretionary share of federal outlays calculated consistently with adjacent outlay-share rows.
Status: Evidence sources and values verified
Interpretation: This shows the size or burden of discretionary spending as percent of federal outlays for 2025. A higher value is generally more concerning when it reflects debt, deficits, outlays, or interest burden.
Formula: Source table direct
Notes: Direct XLSX is automation URL; human route is fallback only. Trend field corrected 2026-07-11 (external review found it did not match the displayed 2024/2025 evidence values). Target methodology also corrected 2026-07-11: an earlier version of this row held discretionary spending at its own CBO baseline and let mandatory spending (NDD-MET-016/017) absorb the transition instead, which external review found implied a one-year mandatory-spending cut. The allocation was reversed: mandatory is now a hard floor, and discretionary absorbs the temporary transition shown here.
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NDD-REQ-019
Discretionary spending as percent of GDP absorbs the transition needed to protect NDD-MET-017-USD's mandatory-spending floor: it falls from 5.89% (2026) to about 5.1% (2027) -- a real but now mild reduction, versus the roughly 3.0% low point the original unsmoothed version required -- before recovering to its own CBO-baseline level by 2030 and tracking it through 2036 (4.8%).
Feasibility
This row carries the real, honest cost of protecting mandatory spending's floor (NDD-MET-016/017) on an aggressive debt glidepath: a temporary but now mild reduction to defense, infrastructure, research, and other discretionary priorities, deepest in 2027 (about 5.1% of GDP, versus the roughly 3.0% low point the original unsmoothed glidepath required) and fully recovered to CBO's own baseline by 2030. Smoothing NDD-MET-001's pace (2026-07-11, at the user's request) meaningfully softened this row's near-term cost, which was previously the most severe tradeoff in this scenario. See NDD-MET-005 for how the full receipts/spending mix was allocated and NDD-MET-001 for the historical precedent behind the underlying debt pace.
Benefits
If Met: Protecting mandatory spending's dollar floor (NDD-MET-016/017) requires discretionary spending -- national defense, public safety, infrastructure, research, and other essential public functions -- to absorb a real but now mild reduction, to about 5.1% of GDP in 2027, recovering to CBO's own baseline level by 2030. Smoothing NDD-MET-001's pace made this the biggest single improvement in this scenario's near-term cost.
If Not Met: If mandatory spending were flexed downward instead to protect discretionary spending, an earlier version of this scenario showed mandatory spending would need to fall by roughly $930 billion in a single year (2027) -- a real cut to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, which this row's design specifically avoids by asking discretionary spending to absorb the adjustment instead.
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NDD-MET-019: Discretionary spending as percent of GDP
Current Value: 6.2% (2025)
Trend: -0.1 PP vs 2024; -1.5 PP vs 2020 (Context-dependent)
Metric Evidence:
| Type | Period | Target | Value | Source |
|---|
| Actual | 2001 | --- | 6.2% | CBO |
| Actual | 2006 | --- | 7.5% | CBO |
| Actual | 2011 | --- | 8.7% | CBO |
| Actual | 2016 | --- | 6.4% | CBO |
| Actual | 2021 | --- | 7.1% | CBO |
| Actual | 2024 | --- | 6.3% | CBO |
| Actual | 2025 | --- | 6.2% | CBO |
| Projection | 2026 | 5.89% | 5.89% | CBO |
| Projection | 2027 | 5.1% | 5.65% | CBO |
| Projection | 2028 | 5.1% | 5.56% | CBO |
| Projection | 2029 | 5.4% | 5.41% | CBO |
| Projection | 2030 | 5.3% | 5.32% | CBO |
| Projection | 2031 | 5.2% | 5.21% | CBO |
| Projection | 2032 | 5.1% | 5.12% | CBO |
| Projection | 2033 | 5.1% | 5.05% | CBO |
| Projection | 2034 | 5.0% | 4.95% | CBO |
| Projection | 2035 | 4.9% | 4.86% | CBO |
| Projection | 2036 | 4.8% | 4.80% | CBO |
Source Location: CBO February 2026 historical workbook, Table 4a (discretionary outlays as a percent of GDP) for actual years -- corrected 2026-07-11 after external review found this row's actual-year values were wrong and confirmed CBO's own historical workbook already contains this series directly, without needing the previously-sought OMB Table 8.4 workbook; CBO Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 and 10-Year Budget Projections for projected discretionary outlays as a percent of GDP. Values rounded to one decimal percentage point for display.
Status: Evidence sources and values verified
Interpretation: This shows the size or burden of discretionary spending as percent of GDP for 2025. A higher value is generally more concerning when it reflects debt, deficits, outlays, or interest burden.
Formula: Source table direct
Notes: Resolved 2026-07-12: historical evidence (2001-2025) previously needed OMB Table 8.4, which is Excel-only and not directly text-extractable. External review found CBO's own historical workbook, Table 4a, already contains discretionary outlays as percent of GDP directly and does not have this limitation; all five affected actual years (2001, 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021) were corrected from Table 4a and the OMB Table 8.4 dependency is no longer applicable. Trend field corrected 2026-07-11 (external review found it did not match the displayed 2024/2025 evidence values). Target methodology also corrected 2026-07-11: an earlier version of this row held discretionary spending at its own CBO baseline and let mandatory spending (NDD-MET-016/017) absorb the transition instead, which external review found implied a one-year mandatory-spending cut. The allocation was reversed: mandatory is now a hard floor, and discretionary absorbs the temporary transition shown here.
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NDD-REQ-020
Annual growth in federal interest outlays shall decline from +7.12% in 2026 to -0.32% in 2036 -- interest costs stop growing and start shrinking in the final year -- the growth-rate path implied by NDD-MET-012's exact-rate interest-cost trajectory.
Assoc V2 Req:
NDD-MET-020; NDD-PER-006
Feasibility
This target is the growth-rate version of NDD-MET-012's interest-cost path, not independently derived. See NDD-MET-012 for the interest-rate assumptions and NDD-MET-001 for the historical precedent behind the underlying debt pace and its caveats.
Benefits
If Met: Following NDD-MET-012's exact-rate interest-cost path, growth in interest costs slows unevenly but persistently -- dipping and rising through the high-single digits in the late 2020s and early 2030s, then falling sharply -- until it turns negative in 2036, meaning interest costs actually shrink in dollar terms for the first time in this glidepath.
If Not Met: Left unchecked, interest-cost growth settles around 6.20% a year by 2036 under the CBO baseline -- still growing, unlike this glidepath's endpoint, where interest costs are actually declining.
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NDD-MET-020: Annual percent change in federal interest outlays
Current Value: +10.25% (2025)
Trend: -23.42 PP vs 2024 (Improving)
Metric Evidence:
| Type | Period | Target | Value | Source |
|---|
| Actual | 2001 | --- | -7.53% | FRED |
| Actual | 2006 | --- | 23.16% | FRED |
| Actual | 2011 | --- | 17.21% | FRED |
| Actual | 2016 | --- | 7.55% | FRED |
| Actual | 2021 | --- | 1.99% | FRED |
| Actual | 2024 | --- | 33.67% | FRED |
| Actual | 2025 | --- | 10.25% | FRED |
| Projection | 2026 | 7.12% | 7.12% | CBO |
| Projection | 2027 | 5.34% | 6.62% | CBO |
| Projection | 2028 | 7.73% | 9.94% | CBO |
| Projection | 2029 | 5.99% | 8.76% | CBO |
| Projection | 2030 | 4.86% | 8.10% | CBO |
| Projection | 2031 | 4.47% | 8.14% | CBO |
| Projection | 2032 | 3.71% | 7.88% | CBO |
| Projection | 2033 | 1.83% | 6.82% | CBO |
| Projection | 2034 | 1.09% | 6.69% | CBO |
| Projection | 2035 | 0.25% | 6.06% | CBO |
| Projection | 2036 | -0.32% | 6.20% | CBO |
Source Location: Measures the year-over-year percent change in federal net interest outlays, using FRED FYOINT for actual years and CBO Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036, Table 1-1 (Net interest, billions of dollars) for projection years. This is not the interest rate paid on Treasury debt; it is the growth rate of the federal government's dollar cost for interest. Each row is computed directly from consecutive-year FYOINT/Table 1-1 values, so 2027-2036 are each year's own growth rate rather than CBO's stated 7.5 percent average annual rate over the decade. 2026 specifically uses CBO's own 2025 actual ($969.938B, from the same Table 1-1) as the base for CBO's 2026 projection ($1,038.976B), giving 7.12% -- corrected 2026-07-12 after external review found the previously displayed 7.11% matched neither this CBO-to-CBO convention nor a FRED-actual-to-CBO-projection convention (which would give 7.10%, using FRED's own 2025 actual of $970.065B instead of CBO's slightly different $969.938B); CBO-to-CBO was chosen as the cleaner, single-source convention for a series that is otherwise entirely CBO-projection-based from 2026 onward.
Status: Evidence sources and values verified
Interpretation: This shows the size or burden of annual percent change in federal interest outlays for 2025. A higher value is generally more concerning when it reflects debt, deficits, outlays, or interest burden.
Formula: (FYOINT_current - FYOINT_prior) / FYOINT_prior * 100
Notes: Resolved 2026-07-11 with a fresh full read-through, as requested given the scale of this session's original fix. Independently recomputed all 18 evidence values from raw sources -- FRED's published FYOINT dollar figures for all 7 Actual years, and CBO Table 1-1's Net Interest dollar figures for all 11 Projection years -- and every value matched the file at that time. Trend field changed from a flat restatement of CurrentValue to the year-over-year change in the growth rate itself (10.25% in 2025 vs 33.67% in 2024), which is more informative for a metric that is already a rate. Corrected a second time 2026-07-11 after a follow-up external review supplied CBO's exact spreadsheet-level growth rates (this row's baseline had in fact still been computed from 1-decimal-rounded interest-rate inputs, contrary to the 'matched exactly' claim above, which described only that the file's own numbers were internally consistent, not that they matched CBO's exact machine-readable data); all 10 projection-year baseline values were replaced with the exact CBO figures.
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NDD-REQ-021
Federal debt held by the public per person shall rise from $93,350 in 2026 to a peak near $105,461 around 2032, then ease down to about $101,402 by 2036, at the same relative (smoothed, ease-in) pace as NDD-MET-001's glidepath -- using a single population concept (FRED POPTHM) consistently across actual, baseline, and target figures.
Feasibility
This row divides NDD-MET-004's dollar debt trajectory by U.S. population (POPTHM concept, extrapolated using a fixed annual increase for projection years), so it moves for two reasons: the debt paydown pace (see NDD-MET-001's Feasibility for the historical precedent) and population increase (a fixed annual amount for projection years, not a percentage growth rate) diluting the per-person figure. See NDD-MET-001 for the historical/international precedent behind the underlying debt pace and its caveats.
Benefits
If Met: Following the same relative pace as the debt-held-by-the-public glidepath keeps debt per person from climbing much past the 2026 starting value of $93,350, instead of reaching a projected $156,084 per person by 2036 under the current baseline.
If Not Met: Left unchecked, debt held by the public grows to $156,084 per person by 2036 under the current baseline, up from $88,520 in 2025 -- about $54,682 more per person than this glidepath's endpoint.
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NDD-MET-021: Federal debt held by the public per person
Current Value: $88,520 per person (2025)
Trend: +$5,377 vs 2024 (Worsening)
Metric Evidence:
| Type | Period | Target | Value | Source |
|---|
| Actual | 2001 | --- | $11,680 | FRED |
| Actual | 2006 | --- | $16,174 | FRED |
| Actual | 2011 | --- | $32,387 | FRED |
| Actual | 2016 | --- | $43,603 | FRED |
| Actual | 2021 | --- | $67,025 | FRED |
| Actual | 2024 | --- | $83,143 | FRED |
| Actual | 2025 | --- | $88,520 | FRED |
| Projection | 2026 | $93,350 | $93,336 | CBO debt / VTC POPTHM extrapolation |
| Projection | 2027 | $96,771 | $98,435 | CBO debt / VTC POPTHM extrapolation |
| Projection | 2028 | $99,584 | $104,001 | CBO debt / VTC POPTHM extrapolation |
| Projection | 2029 | $101,826 | $109,293 | CBO debt / VTC POPTHM extrapolation |
| Projection | 2030 | $103,591 | $115,013 | CBO debt / VTC POPTHM extrapolation |
| Projection | 2031 | $104,744 | $120,883 | CBO debt / VTC POPTHM extrapolation |
| Projection | 2032 | $105,461 | $127,114 | CBO debt / VTC POPTHM extrapolation |
| Projection | 2033 | $105,440 | $134,213 | CBO debt / VTC POPTHM extrapolation |
| Projection | 2034 | $104,830 | $141,327 | CBO debt / VTC POPTHM extrapolation |
| Projection | 2035 | $103,499 | $148,263 | CBO debt / VTC POPTHM extrapolation |
| Projection | 2036 | $101,402 | $156,084 | CBO debt / VTC POPTHM extrapolation |
Source Location: Formula: federal debt held by the public (FRED FYGFDPUN, Q3/September each year) divided by population (FRED POPTHM, September each year), both from the U.S. Treasury and BEA respectively. Actual years verified directly 2026-07-12 (e.g. 2025: $30,298,281 million / 342,277 thousand = $88,520; 2024: $28,325,715 million / 340,688 thousand = $83,143). Projected years (2026-2036), both baseline and target, use the same POPTHM concept extrapolated forward using a fixed annual population increase (the observed Sept 2024 to Sept 2025 change of +1,589 thousand/year, held flat for the projection window -- a linear extrapolation, not a percentage growth rate) divided into CBO's baseline debt (Table 1-3) for the Value column and this scenario's target debt (NDD-MET-001/004) for the Target column. Corrected 2026-07-12 after external review found the row's formula did not reproduce its own displayed values (actual 2025 read $90,135 instead of the verified $88,520) and that its projection years silently switched to CBO's own population projection, a different concept (Social Security area population, headlined by CBO at about 349 million for 2026) than the POPTHM-based actual years -- both the actual-year arithmetic error and the projection-year concept-switch are now fixed, with a single population concept (POPTHM, extrapolated) used throughout the full 2001-2036 series.
Status: Evidence sources and values verified
Interpretation: Federal debt held by the public per person shows each resident's approximate share of publicly held federal debt, using U.S. resident population (POPTHM) as the denominator throughout.
Formula: Debt held by the public / population (FRED POPTHM concept, extrapolated for projection years).
Notes: FYGFDPUN is in millions of dollars and POPTHM is in thousands of persons; display uses simplified dollars and persons. Corrected 2026-07-12: this row's formula previously did not reproduce its own displayed actual-year values, and its projection years used a different, unstated population concept than its actual years. Rebuilt the full 2001-2036 series (actual, baseline, and target) from a single population concept (POPTHM) throughout; projection-year population uses a fixed annual increase (+1,589 thousand/year, POPTHM's own observed Sept 2024-to-Sept 2025 change) held flat -- a linear extrapolation, not a percentage growth rate (corrected 2026-07-12 after external review found 'growth rate' was inaccurate terminology for a fixed absolute increase), not an independently sourced population projection, since CBO does not publish one in the POPTHM concept -- this is a disclosed simplification, not a second data source.
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NDD-REQ-022
Federal debt held by the public as percent of federal receipts shall decline from 573.5% in 2026 to 360.2% in 2036, computed consistently as NDD-MET-001's target debt divided by NDD-MET-009's target receipts for each year (not CBO's baseline receipts), so this row stays integrated with the rest of the scenario.
Feasibility
This row is now computed as NDD-MET-001's target debt (%GDP) divided by NDD-MET-009's target receipts (%GDP) for each year, so it is fully consistent with the rest of this integrated scenario -- previously it divided target debt by CBO's baseline receipts, which quietly broke that consistency (corrected 2026-07-11 after external review). It improves for two combined reasons: debt growth slows (see NDD-MET-001's Feasibility for the historical precedent) and receipts grow faster than CBO's own baseline (see NDD-MET-009's Feasibility for the 1994-2000 pace this assumes). See NDD-MET-001 for the historical/international precedent behind the underlying debt pace and its caveats.
Benefits
If Met: Following NDD-MET-001's smoothed debt glidepath and NDD-MET-009's receipts path together (debt divided by receipts, both already part of this scenario) brings debt down to 360.2% of annual receipts by 2036, instead of climbing to a projected 676.5% under the current baseline.
If Not Met: Left unchecked, debt held by the public grows to nearly 6.8 times annual federal receipts by 2036, roughly 316 percentage points above this glidepath's endpoint.
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NDD-MET-022: Federal debt held by the public as percent of federal receipts
Current Value: 578.6% (2025)
Trend: +2.9 PP (Worsening)
Metric Evidence:
| Type | Period | Target | Value | Source |
|---|
| Actual | 2001 | --- | 166.7% | FRED |
| Actual | 2006 | --- | 200.6% | FRED |
| Actual | 2011 | --- | 439.7% | FRED |
| Actual | 2016 | --- | 433.6% | FRED |
| Actual | 2021 | --- | 550.6% | FRED |
| Actual | 2024 | --- | 575.7% | FRED/Treasury + FRED/OMB |
| Actual | 2025 | --- | 578.6% | FRED/Treasury + FRED/OMB |
| Projection | 2026 | 573.5% | 573.5% | CBO |
| Projection | 2027 | 559.3% | 577.8% | CBO |
| Projection | 2028 | 542.7% | 594.5% | CBO |
| Projection | 2029 | 525.0% | 602.9% | CBO |
| Projection | 2030 | 505.2% | 610.8% | CBO |
| Projection | 2031 | 484.5% | 619.1% | CBO |
| Projection | 2032 | 461.8% | 630.1% | CBO |
| Projection | 2033 | 438.4% | 644.6% | CBO |
| Projection | 2034 | 413.4% | 657.1% | CBO |
| Projection | 2035 | 387.4% | 666.1% | CBO |
| Projection | 2036 | 360.2% | 676.5% | CBO |
Source Location: Formula: federal debt held by the public divided by federal receipts, expressed as a percent. Actual values use federal debt held by the public and fiscal-year receipts from FRED/CBO historical budget data; projection values use CBO projected debt held by the public and projected revenues. Values are rounded to one decimal place. The 2025 value was corrected from a previously reviewed 589.5% to 578.6%, which matches independent computation from FRED debt-held-by-the-public and receipts data and from CBO's own Table 1-1 actual-2025 figures (both land at approximately 576-579%); 589.5% could not be reconciled with any combination of sourced figures checked.
Status: Evidence sources and values verified
Interpretation: Federal debt held by the public as percent of federal receipts compares the debt stock with one year of federal revenue.
Formula: Debt held by the public / federal receipts x 100.
Notes: The high percentage means publicly held debt is several times annual federal receipts.
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NDD-REQ-023
Gross federal debt as percent of federal receipts shall decline from 704.6% in 2026 to 408.8% in 2036, computed consistently as NDD-MET-002's target gross debt divided by NDD-MET-009's target receipts for each year (not CBO's baseline receipts), so this row stays integrated with the rest of the scenario.
Feasibility
This row is now computed as NDD-MET-002's target gross debt (%GDP) divided by NDD-MET-009's target receipts (%GDP) for each year, so it is fully consistent with the rest of this integrated scenario -- previously it divided target debt by CBO's baseline receipts, which quietly broke that consistency (corrected 2026-07-11 after external review). See NDD-MET-001 for the historical/international precedent behind the underlying debt pace and its caveats, NDD-MET-002 for how intragovernmental debt dynamics affect gross-style debt measures specifically, and NDD-MET-009 for the receipts pace this assumes.
Benefits
If Met: Following NDD-MET-002's smoothed gross-debt glidepath and NDD-MET-009's receipts path together (debt divided by receipts, both already part of this scenario) brings gross debt down to 408.8% of annual receipts by 2036, instead of climbing to a projected 767.3% under the current baseline.
If Not Met: Left unchecked, gross federal debt grows to more than 7.6 times annual federal receipts by 2036, roughly 358 percentage points above this glidepath's endpoint.
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NDD-MET-023: Gross federal debt as percent of federal receipts
Current Value: 713.8% (2025)
Trend: -2.3 PP vs 2024 (Improving)
Metric Evidence:
| Type | Period | Target | Value | Source |
|---|
| Actual | 2001 | --- | 291.7% | FRED/OMB |
| Actual | 2006 | --- | 353.4% | FRED/OMB |
| Actual | 2011 | --- | 642.1% | FRED/OMB |
| Actual | 2016 | --- | 599.0% | FRED/OMB |
| Actual | 2021 | --- | 702.5% | FRED/OMB |
| Actual | 2024 | --- | 716.1% | FRED |
| Actual | 2025 | --- | 713.8% | FRED |
| Projection | 2026 | 704.6% | 704.6% | CBO |
| Projection | 2027 | 678.6% | 701.4% | CBO |
| Projection | 2028 | 651.2% | 713.1% | CBO |
| Projection | 2029 | 622.6% | 715.1% | CBO |
| Projection | 2030 | 592.0% | 715.6% | CBO |
| Projection | 2031 | 560.3% | 716.5% | CBO |
| Projection | 2032 | 529.3% | 722.1% | CBO |
| Projection | 2033 | 500.2% | 735.7% | CBO |
| Projection | 2034 | 470.4% | 747.9% | CBO |
| Projection | 2035 | 440.4% | 757.5% | CBO |
| Projection | 2036 | 408.8% | 767.3% | CBO |
Source Location: Formula: gross federal debt divided by federal receipts, expressed as a percent. Actual values (2024-2025) use FRED's annual fiscal-year gross federal debt and fiscal-year federal receipts series consistently (2024: $35,230.7B / $4,919.884B = 716.1%; 2025: $37,375.0B / $5,236.421B = 713.8%; corrected 2026-07-12 after external review found the previous 2024 value, 721.0%, did not reconcile with 2025's value under the same source convention); projection values use CBO projected revenues and debt outlook data with the gross-vs-public debt adjustment documented for this requirements-engineering review. Values are rounded to one decimal place.
Status: Evidence sources and values verified
Interpretation: Gross federal debt as percent of federal receipts compares total gross debt with one year of federal revenue.
Formula: Gross federal debt / federal receipts x 100.
Notes: Calculated value is about 713.8%; the existing Metrics Home value 0.7% appears scaled incorrectly and should be corrected before final registry/page synchronization.
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